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Super Bowl Odds: Fair Chances for Every Team
Odds to win the Super Bowl for all 32 NFL teams, shown as fair chances from our season simulation – model numbers, not sportsbook odds. You can also check the margin of a futures list.
Model favourite
Buffalo Bills
14%fair 7.07An AFC club wins
52%NFC club: 48%Super Bowl chances, 2026 season
| # | Team | Make the playoffs | Reach the Super Bowl | Win the Super Bowl | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo BillsAFC · 6–1 | 95.7% | 25% | 14% | 7.07 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ersNFC · 6–1 | 93.5% | 23% | 12% | 8.58 |
| 3 | Minnesota VikingsNFC · 6–1 | 91.2% | 21% | 10% | 9.62 |
| 4 | Denver BroncosAFC · 6–2 | 91.6% | 18% | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 5 | Chicago BearsNFC · 6–2 | 85% | 16% | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 6 | Jacksonville JaguarsAFC · 5–2 | 92.9% | 15% | 8.1% | 12.42 |
| 7 | New England PatriotsAFC · 5–3 | 79% | 10% | 5.4% | 18.48 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh SteelersAFC · 6–2 | 82% | 10% | 4.9% | 20.33 |
| 9 | Detroit LionsNFC · 5–2 | 73% | 10% | 4.8% | 20.70 |
| 10 | Cincinnati BengalsAFC · 5–2 | 80% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 21.28 |
| 11 | Seattle SeahawksNFC · 4–4 | 53% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 27.32 |
| 12 | Kansas City ChiefsAFC · 5–2 | 76% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 32.05 |
| 13 | Los Angeles RamsNFC · 4–4 | 39% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 40.65 |
| 14 | Green Bay PackersNFC · 5–3 | 46% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 49.26 |
| 15 | New York GiantsNFC · 4–2–1 | 67% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 72.46 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC · 3–5 | 41% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 74.63 |
| 17 | Cleveland BrownsAFC · 5–3 | 43% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 149.25 |
| 18 | Houston TexansAFC · 2–5 | 17% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 156.25 |
| 19 | Baltimore RavensAFC · 4–4 | 23% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 161.29 |
| 20 | Atlanta FalconsNFC · 3–5 | 25% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 175.44 |
| 21 | Carolina PanthersNFC · 3–4 | 27% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 200.00 |
| 22 | Washington CommandersNFC · 2–4–1 | 18% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 208.33 |
| 23 | Dallas CowboysNFC · 3–5 | 19% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 312.50 |
| 24 | Las Vegas RaidersAFC · 4–4 | 15% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 500.00 |
| 25 | New Orleans SaintsNFC · 2–5 | 14% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 555.56 |
| 26 | Philadelphia EaglesNFC · 2–6 | 4.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 833.33 |
| 27 | Arizona CardinalsNFC · 3–5 | 5.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1666.67 |
| 28 | Indianapolis ColtsAFC · 2–6 | 3.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 2500.00 |
| 29 | New York JetsAFC · 2–6 | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5000.00 |
| 30 | Los Angeles ChargersAFC · 0–7 | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10000.00 |
| 31 | Miami DolphinsAFC · 1–6 | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | – |
| 32 | Tennessee TitansAFC · 1–7 | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | – |
Chances: share of 10,000 simulated finishes of the regular season and the playoffs, each game played with the ratings, the higher seed at home and the Super Bowl at a neutral site. Fair odds = 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. A futures price is usually much shorter.
Updated 2026-11-05 06:55 UTC
Check a book’s Super Bowl list
Paste a futures list: the sum of its chances shows the margin, and each club’s chance without it sits next to the model’s.
Paste or type a book’s Super Bowl list: one team per line, then its price (+450, 5.50, 9/2). At least two teams.
Super Bowl LXI
- Date
- Sunday, February 14, 2027
- Stadium
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
- Teams
- AFC champion against NFC champion
Source: NFL, 2026-27 important dates, checked Nov 5, 2026: February 14 - Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from every game since 1999. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.1%; at a neutral site (London, the Super Bowl) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a rout moves them more than a field goal, and a favourite’s rout less than an underdog’s. Between seasons each rating keeps 50% of its distance from average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (50) and the carry-over (50%) are the best of a grid on the 2000–2022 seasons (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–2025 were kept aside to test them.
Spread and chance. A spread converts to a chance as P(favourite wins) = Φ(spread ÷ 11.7), Φ the normal curve; 11.7 is the value that fits the results of every closing spread of 1999–2022 best. A 3-point favourite wins about 60%, a 7-point favourite about 73%.
Simulation. The remaining games are played 10,000 times with the ratings (a simulated result moves them too), ties at the rate of the 10-minute-overtime era (0.3%), then the NFL tie-breaking procedure picks division winners and wild cards, and the playoffs are played out: the higher seed at home, the Super Bowl at a neutral site.
Simplified. Simulated games have no score, so the steps on points (combined ranking, net points) use the games played so far; net touchdowns are not in the data, so that step counts as level and the next one is a coin toss.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on 2000–2022; then the ratings forecast every one of the 816 regular-season games of 2023–2025 before kick-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home side” gives the home club its 2000–2022 win rate, 56.4%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 63.8% | 0.636 | 0.223 |
| Market: closing moneyline without the margin | 68.3% | 0.608 | 0.210 |
| Always the home side | 53.9% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
Honest result: the ratings beat a coin and the home side, but the closing market beats the ratings – it knows injuries, weather and starters. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 121 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 61% (market 65%, home side 53%); log-loss 0.652 (market 0.649, coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home side a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–30% (on average 24%) | 41 | 34% |
| 30%–40% (on average 36%) | 79 | 34% |
| 40%–50% (on average 45%) | 163 | 38% |
| 50%–60% (on average 55%) | 183 | 50% |
| 60%–70% (on average 65%) | 171 | 66% |
| 70%–80% (on average 74%) | 130 | 72% |
| 80%–100% (on average 84%) | 49 | 86% |
In-sample, 2000–2022 (5,903 games): ratings 64.2% winners picked, log-loss 0.630; market 66.3%, 0.612.
NFL playoff picture: seeds, odds and tiebreakers →NFL standings: division tables and playoff odds →Margin and no-vig calculator →
Data: nflverse (schedule, scores, closing lines; licence CC BY), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless every club has its games, the division games match the alignment and the playoff games fit the bracket from the tie-breakers. Rules: NFL tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia: NFL playoffs.
How the title chance is computed
- Rate every teamElo ratings come from past NFL results, adjusted for margin of victory, with a home edge. Game data from nflverse, refreshed several times a day.
- Play the season many timesEvery remaining regular-season game is played 10,000 times. Each run ends with its own final standings.
- Seed the playoffsNFL rules and tie-breakers pick 7 teams per conference: 4 division winners and 3 wild cards.
- Play the playoff gamesEach game is decided from the two Elo ratings. The host team gets the home edge.
- Neutral-field Super BowlThe two conference champions meet with no home edge for either side.
- Count the titlesTitle chance = share of runs a team wins the Super Bowl. Playoff and Super Bowl trip chances are counted the same way.
Fair futures price from a chance
Fair decimal price = 1 ÷ title chance. For a chance under half: American = (decimal − 1) × 100, with a plus sign.
Example: For example, a 40.0% chance: 1 ÷ 40.0% = 2.50, which is +150 in American odds.
A futures list with the margin
| Team in the list | Price | Implied chance | Fair chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | +250 | 28.6% | 26.8% |
| Longest shot | +2000 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Whole list (8 teams) | – | 106.4% | Margin 6.4% removed |
Example list. Implied chances add up to 106.4%; the extra 6.4% is the margin. Divide each chance by 106.4% for the fair chance. See the margin calculator.
Futures price vs our fair chance
Sportsbook futures price
- Includes the margin of the whole list
- The margin of a futures list is much larger than on one game
- Moves with money, news and injuries
- A $10.00 bet at +250 returns $35.00 only if the team wins
Our fair chance
- No margin: chances of all teams add up to the whole
- Comes from simulated results, not from bets
- Uses game results, margin of victory and a home edge
- Does not know injuries, quarterbacks, weather or rest
- Settings fitted on older seasons, checked on recent seasons it did not see
Road to the Super Bowl
Playoff teams
7 per conferenceSince the 2020 season, chosen by regular-season winning percentage, with tie-breakers if needed.
Seeds
4 + 3Division champions take the top seeds by overall record. Wild cards with the strongest remaining records fill the lower seeds.
First-round bye
1 per conferenceThe top seed in each conference skips the wild-card round.
Wild-card round
The second seed hosts the seventh, the third hosts the sixth, the fourth hosts the fifth.
Divisional round
Teams are reseeded: the lowest remaining seed travels to the top seed.
Final games
Higher seeds host the conference championships. The two champions meet in the Super Bowl at a predetermined site.
Sources
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/National_Football_League_playoffs · checked Nov 1, 2026
- github.com /nflverse/nflverse-data · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
What are the odds to win the Super Bowl 2027?
The tool above shows every team's title chance and fair price from our simulation. It updates by itself. These are model chances, not sportsbook odds; real futures prices include a margin.
How do I turn Super Bowl odds into a percentage?
Divide 1 by the decimal price. For example, +150 is 2.50 in decimal, so the chance is 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.0%. The odds converter does this for any format.
Why do the chances in a futures list add up to more than the whole?
Each price includes part of the margin. In the example list, the chances add up to 106.4%; the extra 6.4% is the margin. Type the prices of a list into the calculator above to check it.
Does the model know about injuries or quarterbacks?
No. It uses Elo ratings from past results, margin of victory and a home edge. Injuries, quarterback changes, weather and rest are not inputs, so news can move real prices before the model.
Can I bet on Super Bowl futures in my province?
The answer depends on the laws of your province; this page is not legal advice. Check the rules of your provincial lottery corporation.