More sports
NBA draft lottery odds: new 3-2-1 simulator
See each lottery team's chance at every pick under the NBA's new 3-2-1 lottery for the 2027–2029 drafts. The simulator shows chances, not a forecast of who will win.
The 2027 draft uses the 3-2-1 Lottery (drafts 2027–2029): 16 teams, all 16 picks drawn, and the 3 worst records lose a ball.
| Group | Teams | Balls each | No. 1 pick | Worst pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three worst records (“draft relegated”) | 3 | 2 | 5.4% | No. 12 |
| Other teams outside the Play-In | 7 | 3 | 8.1% | No. 16 |
| 9th and 10th Play-In seeds | 4 | 2 | 5.4% | No. 16 |
| Losers of the 7 v 8 Play-In games | 2 | 1 | 2.7% | No. 16 |
37 balls in all; every ball drawn gives the next pick to its team, whose other balls then leave the drum, until all 16 picks are drawn. The No. 1 chance is the team’s balls out of 37.
| Team | In the lottery | No. 1 | Picks 1–4 | Picks 1–5 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks1–5 | 97.5% | 6.6% | 26% | 33% | 35% |
| Utah Jazz1–5 | 99.1% | 6.6% | 26% | 33% | 51% |
| Washington Wizards3–3 | 95.4% | 6.5% | 26% | 32% | 26% |
| Sacramento Kings0–6 | 99.1% | 6.5% | 26% | 33% | 52% |
| Chicago Bulls1–5 | 95.6% | 6.5% | 26% | 32% | 28% |
| Indiana Pacers2–4 | 93.4% | 6.4% | 25% | 32% | 20% |
| Brooklyn Nets0–5 | 99.1% | 6.3% | 25% | 32% | 58% |
| New Orleans Pelicans2–4 | 87% | 6.0% | 24% | 30% | 8.8% |
| Memphis Grizzlies6–0 | 74% | 4.9% | 19% | 24% | 3.0% |
| LA Clippers1–4 | 71% | 4.6% | 18% | 23% | 3.1% |
| Dallas Mavericks4–2 | 71% | 4.6% | 18% | 23% | 2.2% |
| Phoenix Suns1–3 | 69% | 4.5% | 18% | 22% | 3.2% |
| Golden State Warriors3–3 | 64% | 4.1% | 16% | 20% | 1.8% |
| Miami Heat2–4 | 62% | 3.6% | 15% | 18% | 2.4% |
| Charlotte Hornets3–4 | 57% | 3.2% | 13% | 16% | 1.4% |
| Portland Trail Blazers4–1 | 44% | 2.6% | 10% | 13% | 0.6% |
| Orlando Magic2–3 | 45% | 2.5% | 10.0% | 13% | 1.0% |
| Atlanta Hawks3–4 | 45% | 2.4% | 9.7% | 12% | 1.1% |
| Toronto Raptors3–2 | 37% | 1.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 0.4% |
| Denver Nuggets3–2 | 34% | 1.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 0.3% |
| Los Angeles Lakers4–2 | 33% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves4–3 | 25% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers4–2 | 23% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.2% |
| Philadelphia 76ers6–1 | 19% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| Boston Celtics4–1 | 15% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | <0.1% |
| Houston Rockets6–1 | 12% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | <0.1% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder4–2 | 11% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | <0.1% |
| New York Knicks2–4 | 8.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | <0.1% |
| Detroit Pistons5–1 | 7.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | <0.1% |
| San Antonio Spurs4–2 | 5.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0% |
Group chances from 10,000 simulated finishes of the season and the Play-In, then the exact pick table of each group.
Every pick for one team
Draw it yourself
Plays the two 7 v 8 games with the rating chances, then draws all 16 picks with your browser’s random numbers.
Updated 2026-11-01 19:25 UTC
How the lottery odds are calculated
Exact, not simulated. The drawing is followed pick by pick over every set of teams already drawn (216 states): the chance of each team and pick is a sum of products of ball shares.
The pick floor. The rules say a relegated team gets “at worst, the No. 12 pick” but not how the drawing enforces it. Our reading: once the relegated teams still in the drum are as many as the picks left up to No. 12, those picks are drawn among them only. This reproduces every one of the 64 cells of the league’s printed table, its columns for picks 1–3, 1–5 and 1–10 and the average pick.
Pick restrictions (no No. 1 pick two drafts running, no top-five pick three drafts running) count only drafts from 2027 on, so no team is restricted in the 2027 drawing; the league’s table assumes the same.
How the season chances are calculated
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating built from every game since 1984–85 (FiveThirtyEight’s method; our code reproduces their published ratings game by game). Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 60) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 60 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 58.6%. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a blowout moves them more than a one-point game, a favourite’s blowout less than an underdog’s. Each new season starts 40% of the way from last season’s rating to the average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (60) and the carry-over are the best of a grid on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–24 to 2025–26 were kept aside to test them.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, rest days or who sits out.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23; then the ratings forecast every one of the 3,693 regular-season games of 2023–24 to 2025–26 before tip-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home team” gives the home side its win rate of the fit seasons, 57.9%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 66.9% | 0.607 | 0.210 |
| Always the home team | 54.7% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
No market comparison. We found no free source of NBA closing betting lines that may be published, so this card cannot show how the ratings do against the betting market – which knows injuries and rest days and is usually sharper. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 88 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 58% (home team 52%); log-loss 0.640 (coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home team a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home team | Games | Home team won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–20% (on average 16%) | 90 | 7% |
| 20%–35% (on average 29%) | 442 | 25% |
| 35%–50% (on average 43%) | 744 | 40% |
| 50%–65% (on average 58%) | 1,031 | 55% |
| 65%–80% (on average 72%) | 924 | 69% |
| 80%–100% (on average 85%) | 462 | 85% |
In-sample, seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (15,421 games): ratings 66.0% winners picked, log-loss 0.613; home team 57.9%.
NBA play-in tournament: format and odds →NBA standings and playoff odds →NBA power rankings by the numbers (Elo) →
Data: schedule and scores from balldontlie, checked every 6 hours against Wikipedia (team season pages and standings; licence CC BY-SA) – a score or a record that differs stops the update. Rating history before 2015–16: FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo (CC BY). Rules: NBA tie-break procedures, NBA: Play-In Tournament. Lottery: NBA release, 28 May 2026, NBA fact sheet “3-2-1 Lottery”.
Lottery balls and odds by group
| Group | Teams | Balls each | Chance of No. 1 | Top three | Average pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft relegated (worst records) | 3 | 2 | 5.4% | 16% | 8.1 |
| Other teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in | 7 | 3 | 8.1% | 24% | 7.4 |
| Play-in seeds No. 9 and No. 10 | 4 | 2 | 5.4% | 16% | 9.1 |
| Losers of the game between No. 7 and No. 8 | 2 | 1 | 2.7% | 8% | 11.7 |
NBA illustrative odds. They assume no team is under the repeat limits. 37 balls in all.
How the 3-2-1 lottery works
- Standings set the groupsTeams that miss the playoffs and the play-in enter. The 3 worst records are draft relegated.
- Play-in teams joinSeeds No. 9 and No. 10 of each conference and the losers of the game between No. 7 and No. 8 also enter.
- Balls by groupEach team gets the balls of its group, as in the table above. Relegated teams lose one ball.
- All teams are drawnThe balls of every lottery team are drawn to set the order of picks No. 1 to No. 16.
- Relegated teams have a floorA draft-relegated team gets pick No. 12 at worst. Other lottery teams can fall as far as No. 16.
- Equal records: a drawingTeams with the same record are put in order by a random drawing.
The new lottery in numbers
Teams in the lottery
16Every team that misses both the playoffs and the play-in, plus seeds No. 9 and No. 10 and the losers of the game between No. 7 and No. 8.
Lottery balls in all
37The total of all groups. More balls means a higher chance at the first picks.
Floor for relegated teams
No. 12A draft-relegated team cannot pick lower than this.
Drafts covered
2027–2029The 3-2-1 Lottery is in effect for these NBA drafts.
Relegated vs other non-play-in teams
Draft relegated
- 2 balls each – one fewer
- Chance of No. 1: 5.4%
- Top three: 16%, top ten: 61%
- At worst pick No. 12
Other non-play-in teams
- 3 balls each
- Chance of No. 1: 8.1%
- Top three: 24%, top ten: 73%
- Can fall to pick No. 16
Sources
- nba.com /news/nba-board-governors-approve-new-draft-lott… · checked Nov 1, 2026
- ak-static.cms.nba.com /wp-content/uploads/sites/46/2026/05/NBA-3-2-1-D… · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-play-in-tournament · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
How many lottery balls does each team get in the NBA draft lottery?
Teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in get 3, except the 3 worst records (draft relegated), who get 2. Seeds No. 9 and No. 10 get 2; the losers of the game between No. 7 and No. 8 get 1.
Do the worst NBA teams have the highest odds at No. 1?
No. Under the 3-2-1 system the draft-relegated teams have 5.4%, while other non-play-in teams have 8.1%, in the NBA's illustrative table.
How low can a draft-relegated team pick?
At worst pick No. 12. Other lottery teams can fall as far as No. 16.
Does the NBA draft lottery simulator predict the winner?
No. It shows each team's chance at every pick from the balls and the rules. A ball draw shows one possible lottery, not a forecast.
When does the new NBA 3-2-1 lottery start?
It is in effect for the 2027 to 2029 NBA drafts. The repeat limits also count from 2027.