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NBA Cup Standings and Knockout Chances
Check the NBA Cup standings by group, the knockout chances once the field is set, and how the tournament format works.
Eastern Conference: Group Play
| # | Team | W–L | PD | PTS | Group | Wild card | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 1–0 | +16 | 110 | 55% | 18% | 15% |
| 2 | Magic | 1–0 | +7 | 121 | 35% | 11% | 2.5% |
| 3 | Bucks | 0–0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| 4 | Raptors | 0–1 | −7 | 114 | 6.4% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| 5 | Nets | 0–1 | −16 | 94 | 0.5% | 0.7% | <0.1% |
- Pistons, Magic level at 1–0: split by point differential in Group Play (Pistons +16, Magic +7).
- Nets, Raptors level at 0–1: split by point differential in Group Play (Raptors −7, Nets −16).
| # | Team | W–L | PD | PTS | Group | Wild card | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heat | 1–0 | +20 | 145 | 13% | 5.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 76ers | 1–0 | +5 | 98 | 47% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 0–0 | 0 | 0 | 21% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
| 4 | Knicks | 0–1 | −5 | 93 | 19% | 18% | 6.8% |
| 5 | Pacers | 0–1 | −20 | 125 | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
- Heat, 76ers level at 1–0: split by point differential in Group Play (Heat +20, 76ers +5).
- Pacers, Knicks level at 0–1: split by point differential in Group Play (Knicks −5, Pacers −20).
| # | Team | W–L | PD | PTS | Group | Wild card | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wizards | 1–0 | +16 | 95 | 11% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | Celtics | 1–0 | +14 | 125 | 53% | 10% | 9.4% |
| 3 | Hawks | 0–0 | 0 | 0 | 26% | 11% | 2.9% |
| 4 | Bulls | 0–1 | −14 | 111 | 1.7% | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Hornets | 0–1 | −16 | 79 | 8.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
- Celtics, Wizards level at 1–0: split by point differential in Group Play (Wizards +16, Celtics +14).
- Hornets, Bulls level at 0–1: split by point differential in Group Play (Bulls −14, Hornets −16).
Eastern Conference: wild-card race (second place in each group)
- Boston Celtics 1–0, PD +14 East Group C
- Orlando Magic 1–0, PD +7 East Group A
- Philadelphia 76ers 1–0, PD +5 East Group B
Eastern Conference: Knockout Rounds
The field is set when Group Play ends. Chances to get there are in the group tables above.
Next NBA Cup games
- East Group CWizards at HawksFri, Nov 6, 7:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Wizards 21%, Hawks 79%
- East Group CCeltics at HornetsFri, Nov 6, 7:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Celtics 59%, Hornets 41%
- East Group B76ers at CavaliersFri, Nov 6, 7:30 p.m. ETWin chance: 76ers 44%, Cavaliers 56%
- West Group AJazz at MavericksFri, Nov 6, 8:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Jazz 27%, Mavericks 73%
- West Group BThunder at GrizzliesFri, Nov 6, 8:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Thunder 69%, Grizzlies 31%
- East Group ARaptors at BucksFri, Nov 6, 8:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Raptors 66%, Bucks 34%
- West Group BTimberwolves at PelicansFri, Nov 6, 8:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Timberwolves 62%, Pelicans 38%
- West Group CTrail Blazers at LakersFri, Nov 6, 10:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Trail Blazers 38%, Lakers 62%
- West Group CSpurs at KingsFri, Nov 6, 10:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Spurs 80%, Kings 20%
- East Group BKnicks at PacersFri, Nov 13, 7:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Knicks 77%, Pacers 23%
- East Group ABucks at MagicFri, Nov 13, 7:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Bucks 25%, Magic 75%
- East Group BCavaliers at HeatFri, Nov 13, 8:00 p.m. ETWin chance: Cavaliers 51%, Heat 49%
Chances: share of 10,000 simulated finishes of Group Play with our ratings, the NBA Cup tie-breakers applied, then every knockout path worked out exactly.
PD: point differential in Group Play, an overtime game counts 0. PTS: points scored in Group Play without overtime.
Updated 2026-11-05 09:07 UTC
NBA Cup rules and how the chances are calculated
From the NBA’s rules (NBA Cup 101, nba.com), word for word:
In the event two or more teams are tied within a group, the tie among the teams will be broken according to the following tiebreakers (in sequential order): Head-to-head record in Group Play; Point differential in Group Play; ^^ Total points scored in Group Play; ^^ Record from the 2025-26 NBA regular season; Random drawing (in the unlikely scenario that two or more teams are still tied following the previous tiebreakers).
Overtime scoring will not count toward the point differential and total points tiebreakers in the Emirates NBA Cup. A team's point differential will be "0" in Group Play games that go to overtime, and a team's total points scored will exclude points scored in overtime.
Eight teams will advance to the Knockout Rounds: the team with the best standing in Group Play games in each of the six groups and one wild card team from each conference. The wild card will be the team from each conference with the best record in Group Play games that finished second in its group.
In the event two or more teams are tied for the wild card in a conference, the tie among the teams will be broken following the same tiebreaker protocol as described above (with the exception of the head-to-head record in Group Play). Ties within groups will be broken before the calculation of wild card tiebreakers.
In each conference, Quarterfinal games will be hosted by the two teams with the best record in Group Play games, and the team with the best record in Group Play games will host the wild card team.
Our reading where the rules are silent. When a step splits a tie of three or more teams only partly, the teams still level go on to the next step (the rules do not say whether to start again). The four teams of a conference are seeded by record, then the same steps without head-to-head. The rules name the 2025–26 record for the fourth step; each season we use the season before it.
Simulation. Group games still to play are played 10,000 times with the ratings: the margin of each game is drawn from a normal curve around the ratings’ expected margin (the same one as on our NBA odds page), and a margin that rounds to zero is an overtime game, worth 0 in point differential. Simulated games add no points scored, so that step uses the games played. A tie no step splits is a drawing. The knockout chances of each field are then worked out exactly: the Quarterfinals and Semifinals at the host, the Championship at a neutral site.
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating built from every game since 1984–85 (FiveThirtyEight’s method; our code reproduces their published ratings game by game). Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 60) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 60 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 58.5%. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a blowout moves them more than a one-point game, a favourite’s blowout less than an underdog’s. Each new season starts 40% of the way from last season’s rating to the average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (60) and the carry-over are the best of a grid on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–24 to 2025–26 were kept aside to test them.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, rest days or who sits out.
NBA standings and playoff odds →NBA power rankings by the numbers (Elo) →Raptors schedule with win chances →NBA odds explained: spread, moneyline and totals →
Data: schedule and scores from balldontlie, checked every 6 hours against Wikipedia (team season pages and standings; licence CC BY-SA) – a score or a record that differs stops the update. Rating history before 2015–16: FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo (CC BY). Rules: NBA tie-break procedures, NBA: Play-In Tournament.
The NBA Cup in numbers
Groups
6 groupsEach group has 5 teams from one conference. There are 3 groups in the East and 3 in the West.
Group games
4 gamesEach team plays every other team in its group once: 2 at home and 2 on the road.
Knockout field
8 teamsThe group winners plus 1 wild card per conference.
NBA Cup bracket: from groups to final
- Group games in NovemberThe format as announced for 2026–27, expected to match past seasons. Group games are on Fridays and other select days in November.
- Group winners and wild cardsEach group winner advances, plus 1 wild card per conference.
- Knockout in early DecemberThe NBA Cup bracket is single elimination. Each round is one game, and the loser is out.
- Semifinals at the higher seedEach conference semifinal is played in the home arena of the higher-seeded team.
- Championship gameOne game at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana decides the Cup.
Which NBA Cup games count in standings
| Cup game | Counts in standings? | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Group games | Yes | Regular-season games |
| First two knockout rounds | Yes | Regular-season games 81 and 82 |
| Games for teams out early | Yes | Added games against other eliminated teams, to reach 82 |
| Championship game | No | Extra game 83 |
Counted Cup games go into the regular conference tables. See NBA standings and playoff odds.
How the knockout chances are computed
Elo ratings
Ratings come from past results and use the FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo method. The winner takes points from the loser. A bigger win moves more points.
Upsets and home court
An underdog's big win moves more points than a favourite's rout. The home team gets an edge. A neutral site gives no edge.
Between seasons
Every rating is pulled part of the way back toward the league average. The history comes from FiveThirtyEight's public NBA Elo file (CC BY 4.0).
Tested on unseen seasons
Settings were chosen on older seasons. Then they were checked on 3,693 games from 2023–24 to 2025–26. The model's favourite won 66.9%; the home team won 54.7%.
Live game data
Scores come from the balldontlie API and are checked against Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). If they do not match, nothing new is published. Updates run every few hours.
Chance to win the NBA Cup
Cup chance = chance to win the quarterfinal, then the semifinal, then the final
Example: Every game must be won, so the chances multiply, as in a parlay. Later opponents are not known: each possible one counts by its chance.
Sources
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/2026–27_NBA_season · checked Nov 1, 2026
- github.com /fivethirtyeight/data · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-cup-101 · checked Nov 5, 2026
Questions
How does the NBA Cup work?
Teams play in 6 groups of 5 in November. Group winners and 1 wild card per conference (8 teams) go to a single-elimination bracket in early December.
Do NBA Cup games count in the standings?
Group games and the first two knockout rounds count. The first two knockout rounds are regular-season games 81 and 82. The championship game is an extra game 83 and does not count.
Where is the NBA Cup final played?
This season the championship game is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Why are only 80 games on an NBA team's schedule?
Only 80 games are announced before the season. The first two knockout rounds count as games 81 and 82. Teams that miss the knockouts or lose in the quarterfinals get added games against other eliminated teams of their conference, if possible, to reach 82.