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NBA standings and playoff odds
Check where every team stands in the East and West and its chance to go straight to the playoffs, reach the play-in, make the playoffs and win the NBA title.
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | W–L | Pct | GB | Last 10 | Streak | Playoffs | Seeds 1–6 | Play-In | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers *Atlantic | 6–1 | .857 | – | 6–1 | W3 | 87% | 73% | 24% | 3.6% |
| 2 | Detroit Pistons *Central | 5–1 | .833 | 0.5 | 5–1 | W2 | 95.6% | 89% | 10% | 11% |
| 3 | Boston CelticsAtlantic | 4–1 | .800 | 1 | 4–1 | W4 | 90.2% | 79% | 19% | 6.9% |
| 4 | Cleveland CavaliersCentral | 4–2 | .667 | 1.5 | 4–2 | W1 | 84% | 67% | 28% | 3.9% |
| 5 | Toronto RaptorsAtlantic | 3–2 | .600 | 2 | 3–2 | L1 | 73% | 52% | 39% | 2.9% |
| 6 | Washington Wizards *Southeast | 3–3 | .500 | 2.5 | 3–3 | W1 | 8.1% | 2.5% | 18% | <0.1% |
| 7 | Atlanta Hawks Play-InSoutheast | 3–4 | .429 | 3 | 3–4 | L1 | 67% | 43% | 45% | 1.5% |
| 8 | Charlotte Hornets Play-InSoutheast | 3–4 | .429 | 3 | 3–4 | L3 | 56% | 32% | 49% | 1.3% |
| 9 | Orlando Magic Play-InSoutheast | 2–3 | .400 | 3 | 2–3 | W1 | 66% | 44% | 43% | 1.6% |
| 10 | Miami Heat Play-InSoutheast | 2–4 | .333 | 3.5 | 2–4 | W2 | 50% | 27% | 50% | 0.8% |
| 11 | New York KnicksAtlantic | 2–4 | .333 | 3.5 | 2–4 | L1 | 94.9% | 86% | 13% | 14% |
| 12 | Indiana PacersCentral | 2–4 | .333 | 3.5 | 2–4 | L3 | 12% | 3.2% | 24% | <0.1% |
| 13 | Chicago BullsCentral | 1–5 | .167 | 4.5 | 1–5 | L4 | 8.6% | 2.1% | 19% | <0.1% |
| 14 | Milwaukee BucksCentral | 1–5 | .167 | 4.5 | 1–5 | L2 | 5.5% | 1.1% | 14% | 0% |
| 15 | Brooklyn NetsAtlantic | 0–5 | .000 | 5 | 0–5 | L5 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 5.7% | <0.1% |
Seeds 1–6 go straight to the playoffs; 7–10 play the Play-In Tournament for the last two places. * division leader (only a tie-break step: it does not reserve a seed).
Chances: 10,000 simulated finishes of the 1,112 games left, each played with the ratings; ties broken by the NBA procedure below; the Play-In and every series played out.
Tie-breaks behind the seeds
Hawks, Hornets are level at 3–4. Order: Hawks (7), Hornets (8).
- Head-to-head: Hawks 100.0%, Hornets 0.0%
Pacers, Heat, Knicks are level at 2–4. Order: Heat (10), Knicks (11), Pacers (12).
- Division leader: Pacers no, Heat no, Knicks no
- Head-to-head: Pacers 0.0%, Heat 100.0%, Knicks 50.0%
Updated 2026-11-01 19:25 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating built from every game since 1984–85 (FiveThirtyEight’s method; our code reproduces their published ratings game by game). Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 60) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 60 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 58.6%. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a blowout moves them more than a one-point game, a favourite’s blowout less than an underdog’s. Each new season starts 40% of the way from last season’s rating to the average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (60) and the carry-over are the best of a grid on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–24 to 2025–26 were kept aside to test them.
Simulation. The games left are played 10,000 times with the ratings (a simulated result moves them too), the NBA tie-break procedure sets the seeds, then the Play-In and every best-of-seven (home court to the better record, games 1, 2, 5 and 7 at home) are played out.
Simplified. Simulated games have no score, so the last tie-break step (point differential) uses the games played so far; games abroad count as home games of the listed home team.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, rest days or who sits out.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23; then the ratings forecast every one of the 3,693 regular-season games of 2023–24 to 2025–26 before tip-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home team” gives the home side its win rate of the fit seasons, 57.9%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 66.9% | 0.607 | 0.210 |
| Always the home team | 54.7% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
No market comparison. We found no free source of NBA closing betting lines that may be published, so this card cannot show how the ratings do against the betting market – which knows injuries and rest days and is usually sharper. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 88 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 58% (home team 52%); log-loss 0.640 (coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home team a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home team | Games | Home team won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–20% (on average 16%) | 90 | 7% |
| 20%–35% (on average 29%) | 442 | 25% |
| 35%–50% (on average 43%) | 744 | 40% |
| 50%–65% (on average 58%) | 1,031 | 55% |
| 65%–80% (on average 72%) | 924 | 69% |
| 80%–100% (on average 85%) | 462 | 85% |
In-sample, seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (15,421 games): ratings 66.0% winners picked, log-loss 0.613; home team 57.9%.
NBA play-in tournament: format and odds →NBA power rankings by the numbers (Elo) →Raptors schedule 2026-27 with win chances →
Data: schedule and scores from balldontlie, checked every 6 hours against Wikipedia (team season pages and standings; licence CC BY-SA) – a score or a record that differs stops the update. Rating history before 2015–16: FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo (CC BY). Rules: NBA tie-break procedures, NBA: Play-In Tournament.
How the playoff odds are computed
- Collect game resultsScores from the balldontlie API are checked against Wikipedia season pages (CC BY-SA). If they disagree, nothing new is published.
- Rate every teamFiveThirtyEight NBA Elo method: the winner takes rating points from the loser. A bigger win moves more; a favourite's rout counts less.
- Add home edge, resetThe home team gets an edge, none at a neutral site. Between seasons each rating moves part of the way back to the league average.
- Play the rest many timesEvery remaining game of the 82-game regular season is played out many times with per-game Elo chances.
- Break tiesTied teams are ordered with the NBA tie-break rules below.
- Play the play-in and playoffsPlay-in games and best-of-seven series (2–2–1–1–1 home order, home court to the better record) are played out. Same series math as NHL playoffs.
- Count the share of runsEach chance is the share of runs with that result.
What each finish place means
| Finish place | What happens |
|---|---|
| No. 1 to No. 6 | Straight to the playoffs |
| No. 7 and No. 8 | No. 7 hosts No. 8; winner takes seventh seed, loser plays again |
| No. 9 and No. 10 | No. 9 hosts No. 10; loser is out |
| Last play-in game | 7–8 loser hosts 9–10 winner; winner takes eighth seed |
| Below No. 10 | Out of the playoffs; enters the draft lottery |
Playoffs: 8 teams per conference, fixed bracket 1 v 8, 4 v 5, 3 v 6, 2 v 7, never reseeded. More: play-in tournament.
NBA tie-breakers for two tied teams
| Step | Criterion | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| First | Head-to-head winning percentage | – |
| Second | Division winner | Applies even if not in same division |
| Third | Winning percentage in the division | Only if in the same division |
| Fourth | Winning percentage in the conference | – |
| Fifth | Vs playoff-eligible teams, own conference | – |
| Sixth | Vs playoff-eligible teams, other conference | – |
| Seventh | Point differential | – |
Playoff-eligible = the best 10 records in a conference, ties included. Division-winner ties are broken first and decide only the division winner.
Two tied teams vs three or more
Two tied teams
- 7 criteria
- Head-to-head comes first
- Division winner comes second
- Counts playoff-eligible teams of both conferences
Three or more tied teams
- 6 criteria
- Division winner comes first
- Then winning percentage among all tied teams
- Only own-conference playoff-eligible teams count
- Once some teams are separated, the rest restart from the first criterion
What the model knows and misses
Game results only
Long history from FiveThirtyEight's public NBA Elo file (CC BY 4.0); our version reproduces their published ratings. Settings chosen on older seasons, checked on unseen recent ones.
Not in the model
Injuries, rest days, travel, trades and lineups count only once they change results.
Updated by itself
Data refreshes every few hours. If it is too old, the numbers are hidden.
Same tool for hockey
Sources
- nba.com /standings · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-play-in-tournament · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/NBA_playoffs · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/2026–27_NBA_season · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-board-governors-approve-new-draft-lott… · checked Nov 1, 2026
- github.com /fivethirtyeight/data · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
How are NBA playoff odds calculated here?
The rest of the regular season is simulated many times with Elo ratings, ties are broken with NBA rules, then the play-in and playoffs are played out. Each chance is the share of runs.
How many NBA teams make the playoffs?
8 per conference. The first 6 teams go straight in; places 7–10 play the play-in for the last two seeds.
Who gets home court in an NBA playoff series?
The team with the better regular-season record. It hosts the first two games, then the fifth and seventh if needed.
Do the NBA standings odds include injuries?
No. The model uses only game results. Injuries, rest days and trades count only after they change results.