Hockey
NHL standings and playoff chances for every team
See where every NHL team stands, how the playoff picture looks and how likely each team is to make the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup.
Updated 2026-10-28 19:35 UTC
Regular season: 198 of 1,344 games played.
Canadian teams: chance to make the playoffs
- Oilers18 pts in 12 games84%
- Canadiens16 pts in 12 games65%
- Senators16 pts in 13 games56%
- Maple Leafs16 pts in 14 games32%
- Flames10 pts in 11 games31%
- Jets11 pts in 12 games30%
- Canucks7 pts in 14 games4%
4 of 7 Canadian teams hold a playoff spot today. Oilers has the best chance (84%). A Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup in 16 of 100 simulated seasons.
| # | Team | GP | W–L–OT | PTS | P% | RW | GD | Last 10 | Playoffs | Division | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Conference | |||||||||||
| Atlantic: top three | |||||||||||
| 1 | Boston BruinsIn the playoffs in 79 of 100 simulated seasons, about 105 points (most often 90–119). | 13 | 9–3–1 | 19 | .731 | 8 | +21 | 7–2–1 | 79% | 28% | 6% |
| 2 | Montréal CanadiensCAIn the playoffs in 65 of 100 simulated seasons, about 100 points (most often 85–115). | 12 | 7–3–2 | 16 | .667 | 4 | +2 | 6–3–1 | 65% | 16% | 4% |
| 3 | Ottawa SenatorsCAIn the playoffs in 56 of 100 simulated seasons, about 97 points (most often 82–112). | 13 | 8–5–0 | 16 | .615 | 6 | +1 | 6–4–0 | 56% | 10% | 3% |
| Metropolitan: top three | |||||||||||
| 1 | Carolina HurricanesIn the playoffs in 95 of 100 simulated seasons, about 114 points (most often 100–127). | 14 | 10–2–2 | 22 | .786 | 9 | +19 | 8–1–1 | 95% | 65% | 15% |
| 2 | New Jersey DevilsIn the playoffs in 57 of 100 simulated seasons, about 97 points (most often 82–112). | 12 | 8–4–0 | 16 | .667 | 6 | +8 | 7–3–0 | 57% | 9% | 3% |
| 3 | New York RangersIn the playoffs in 37 of 100 simulated seasons, about 91 points (most often 77–105). | 14 | 7–6–1 | 15 | .536 | 7 | +2 | 4–5–1 | 37% | 4% | 2% |
| Wild card: the best two of the rest | |||||||||||
| 1 | Florida PanthersIn the playoffs in 48 of 100 simulated seasons, about 95 points (most often 80–110). | 13 | 7–4–2 | 16 | .615 | 5 | +2 | 6–4–0 | 48% | 7% | 2% |
| 2 | Toronto Maple LeafsCAIn the playoffs in 32 of 100 simulated seasons, about 91 points (most often 76–105). | 14 | 7–5–2 | 16 | .571 | 6 | +6 | 5–3–2 | 32% | 4% | 1% |
| 3 | Tampa Bay LightningIn the playoffs in 75 of 100 simulated seasons, about 103 points (most often 88–118). | 11 | 7–3–1 | 15 | .682 | 6 | +4 | 7–2–1 | 75% | 25% | 6% |
| 4 | New York IslandersIn the playoffs in 40 of 100 simulated seasons, about 92 points (most often 77–107). | 12 | 6–4–2 | 14 | .583 | 5 | +4 | 5–3–2 | 40% | 5% | 1% |
| 5 | Buffalo SabresIn the playoffs in 48 of 100 simulated seasons, about 95 points (most often 80–110). | 12 | 5–4–3 | 13 | .542 | 3 | −8 | 4–3–3 | 48% | 8% | 2% |
| 6 | Detroit Red WingsIn the playoffs in 27 of 100 simulated seasons, about 89 points (most often 74–104). | 12 | 5–4–3 | 13 | .542 | 3 | −4 | 5–2–3 | 27% | 3% | 1% |
| 7 | Washington CapitalsIn the playoffs in 58 of 100 simulated seasons, about 97 points (most often 82–112). | 10 | 6–4–0 | 12 | .600 | 5 | +2 | 6–4–0 | 58% | 10% | 3% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh PenguinsIn the playoffs in 36 of 100 simulated seasons, about 91 points (most often 75–105). | 12 | 5–6–1 | 11 | .458 | 2 | 0 | 3–6–1 | 36% | 4% | 2% |
| 9 | Columbus Blue JacketsIn the playoffs in 33 of 100 simulated seasons, about 90 points (most often 74–105). | 10 | 5–5–0 | 10 | .500 | 1 | −7 | 5–5–0 | 33% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | Philadelphia FlyersIn the playoffs in 14 of 100 simulated seasons, about 83 points (most often 68–97). | 14 | 3–7–4 | 10 | .357 | 3 | −19 | 3–5–2 | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| Western Conference | |||||||||||
| Central: top three | |||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota WildIn the playoffs in 90 of 100 simulated seasons, about 107 points (most often 92–121). | 14 | 9–3–2 | 20 | .714 | 9 | +13 | 7–2–1 | 90% | 36% | 8% |
| 2 | Utah MammothIn the playoffs in 70 of 100 simulated seasons, about 98 points (most often 84–113). | 13 | 8–5–0 | 16 | .615 | 7 | +4 | 6–4–0 | 70% | 13% | 4% |
| 3 | Dallas StarsIn the playoffs in 77 of 100 simulated seasons, about 101 points (most often 87–116). | 12 | 7–4–1 | 15 | .625 | 4 | +8 | 7–2–1 | 77% | 19% | 5% |
| Pacific: top three | |||||||||||
| 1 | Vegas Golden KnightsIn the playoffs in 86 of 100 simulated seasons, about 103 points (most often 89–118). | 14 | 9–4–1 | 19 | .679 | 7 | +12 | 6–3–1 | 86% | 38% | 7% |
| 2 | Edmonton OilersCAIn the playoffs in 84 of 100 simulated seasons, about 103 points (most often 88–117). | 12 | 8–2–2 | 18 | .750 | 6 | +9 | 7–2–1 | 84% | 35% | 6% |
| 3 | Seattle KrakenIn the playoffs in 57 of 100 simulated seasons, about 93 points (most often 78–108). | 12 | 7–4–1 | 15 | .625 | 5 | +3 | 6–3–1 | 57% | 11% | 2% |
| Wild card: the best two of the rest | |||||||||||
| 1 | Colorado AvalancheIn the playoffs in 81 of 100 simulated seasons, about 102 points (most often 87–117). | 12 | 6–5–1 | 13 | .542 | 6 | +9 | 4–5–1 | 81% | 21% | 7% |
| 2 | Nashville PredatorsIn the playoffs in 41 of 100 simulated seasons, about 90 points (most often 75–105). | 12 | 4–3–5 | 13 | .542 | 4 | −5 | 3–2–5 | 41% | 4% | 1% |
| 3 | San Jose SharksIn the playoffs in 32 of 100 simulated seasons, about 86 points (most often 72–101). | 13 | 6–6–1 | 13 | .500 | 1 | −8 | 4–5–1 | 32% | 4% | 1% |
| 4 | St. Louis BluesIn the playoffs in 46 of 100 simulated seasons, about 91 points (most often 76–106). | 12 | 5–6–1 | 11 | .458 | 5 | −2 | 4–5–1 | 46% | 4% | 2% |
| 5 | Anaheim DucksIn the playoffs in 36 of 100 simulated seasons, about 87 points (most often 72–102). | 12 | 5–6–1 | 11 | .458 | 4 | −6 | 3–6–1 | 36% | 5% | 1% |
| 6 | Winnipeg JetsCAIn the playoffs in 30 of 100 simulated seasons, about 87 points (most often 72–102). | 12 | 4–5–3 | 11 | .458 | 4 | −8 | 3–5–2 | 30% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 | Calgary FlamesCAIn the playoffs in 31 of 100 simulated seasons, about 85 points (most often 70–101). | 11 | 5–6–0 | 10 | .455 | 5 | −13 | 5–5–0 | 31% | 4% | 1% |
| 8 | Los Angeles KingsIn the playoffs in 28 of 100 simulated seasons, about 85 points (most often 70–100). | 11 | 3–6–2 | 8 | .364 | 2 | −9 | 3–5–2 | 28% | 3% | 1% |
| 9 | Chicago BlackhawksIn the playoffs in 9 of 100 simulated seasons, about 76 points (most often 61–91). | 12 | 4–8–0 | 8 | .333 | 3 | −18 | 4–6–0 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 | Vancouver CanucksCAIn the playoffs in 4 of 100 simulated seasons, about 71 points (most often 57–85). | 14 | 3–10–1 | 7 | .250 | 1 | −22 | 1–8–1 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
Chances: share of 10,000 simulated finishes of the season. Clinched (x, y, z, p) and eliminated (e) marks are the NHL’s own.
How good is the model
We replayed 2024–25 and 2025–26: before each of the 2,624 regular-season games the ratings gave a chance to the home team, then learned from the result. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better.
| Forecast | Log-loss | Brier | Winner picked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 0.678 | 0.243 | 56.3% |
| Home team, at last season’s home win rate | 0.691 | 0.249 | 54.2% |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 0.693 | 0.250 | 50.0% |
Hold-out test: with settings fitted on 2024–25 alone, the 2025–26 forecasts scored a log-loss of 0.696 against 0.693 for a coin flip – no better. Single NHL games are close to a coin flip; treat team chances as rough.
Are the chances honest? Forecast against result
| We gave the home team | Games | Home team won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–35% (on average 32%) | 21 | 14% |
| 35%–45% (on average 42%) | 264 | 43% |
| 45%–50% (on average 48%) | 440 | 50% |
| 50%–55% (on average 53%) | 666 | 52% |
| 55%–60% (on average 57%) | 683 | 54% |
| 60%–65% (on average 62%) | 352 | 68% |
| 65%–70% (on average 67%) | 153 | 64% |
| 70%–100% (on average 72%) | 45 | 76% |
How it is calculated
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating. Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − away rating + 30) ÷ 400): home ice is worth 30 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 54.3% of games. After the game both ratings move by 5 × (result − chance), more after a win by several goals; overtime and shootout wins count like other wins (that fitted past seasons best). Between seasons each rating keeps 40% of its distance from average.
The rest of the season. We play every remaining game 10,000 times. 22.8% of games go past 60 minutes (league rate of the last two seasons); of those, 67% end in overtime and the rest in a shootout, and either team wins them equally often. Ratings keep moving inside each simulated season, so later games are less certain. Then the NHL rules pick the 16 playoff teams and the bracket is played out, best of seven, 2-2-1-1-1.
Who gets in. The top three of each division, plus the two best of the rest in each conference (wild cards). Teams level on points are split by regulation wins, then regulation and overtime wins, then total wins, then points in the games between them, then goal differential, then goals scored.
Simplified. Goals of games not yet played are not simulated, so goal differential and goals scored use the games played so far; a tie left after every step is a coin flip (the NHL would play one extra game); a tie of three or more teams that partly splits is not started again from the first step.
NHL playoff bracket and series odds →NHL draft lottery →Stanley Cup odds →NHL by the numbers →
Data: NHL public API (standings, every game result and the schedule), checked every hour; nothing is published unless the standings match the game results team by team. Playoff rules: Wikipedia – Stanley Cup playoffs.
What the standings columns mean
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| GP | Games played |
| PTS | Points in the standings |
| P% | Share of available points earned so far |
| RW | Regulation wins – the first tie-breaker |
| GD | Goals for minus goals against |
| L10 | Record over the last ten games |
| Playoff chance | Share of simulated seasons where the team makes the playoffs |
| Cup chance | Share of simulated seasons where the team wins the Stanley Cup |
| x, y, z, p | NHL marks: the team has clinched a spot |
| e | NHL mark: the team is eliminated |
P% lets you compare teams that have played a different number of games.
How the playoff picture is set
Division qualifiers
3 per divisionFirst, second and third place in each of the four divisions qualify automatically.
Wild cards
2 per conferenceThe next teams with the most points in each conference, no matter the division.
Playoff teams
16 of 32Four rounds of best-of-seven series.
First-round pairs
Best division winner plays the lower wild card, the other winner plays the other wild card, second plays third.
Tie-breakers, in order
| Order | Tie-breaker |
|---|---|
| First | Regulation wins |
| Second | Regulation and overtime wins |
| Third | Total wins |
| Fourth | Points in games between the tied clubs |
| Fifth | Goal differential |
| Sixth | Goals for |
For end-of-season ties. Fourth step: only games between the tied clubs, odd game excluded; with three or more clubs, the share of available points in those games.
How the playoff chance is calculated
- Read the resultsFinished games come from the NHL public API and must match the standings team by team.
- Rate every teamElo ratings rise after wins and fall after losses. With equal ratings, the home team gets 54.3%.
- Play the rest many timesEvery remaining game is simulated many times; ratings keep moving inside each simulated season.
- Apply NHL rulesQualification and tie-break rules pick the playoff teams in every run.
- Count the shareChance = share of runs where the team gets in. Stanley Cup odds explains the Cup side.
What the chance includes and ignores
Included
- Points already earned
- Remaining schedule, home and away
- Team strength from game results
- NHL qualification and tie-break rules
Not included
- Injuries
- Trades and signings
- Which goalie starts
- Rest days and travel
Sources
- Wikipedia – Stanley Cup playoffs · checked Oct 28, 2026
Questions
How are NHL playoff odds calculated?
The calculator above plays every remaining game many times with Elo ratings, applies NHL qualification and tie-break rules and shows the share of runs in which each team makes the playoffs.
How many teams make the NHL playoffs?
16 of 32: the first 3 teams in each division plus 2 wild cards per conference. See NHL playoffs for the format.
What is the first tie-breaker in the NHL standings?
Regulation wins. Then regulation and overtime wins, total wins, points between the tied clubs, goal differential and goals for.
How accurate are NHL playoff chances?
They are estimates. The tool replays past seasons and compares our ratings with a coin flip and with a simple home-team rule, plus a forecast-against-result chart.
Where can I see only the Canadian NHL teams?
Choose the Canadian teams view: it lists all 7 with a summary line. History: Canada's Stanley Cup drought.