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CFL playoffs bracket and Grey Cup chances
Follow the CFL playoff bracket from the Division Semi-Finals to the Grey Cup. See each team's chance to advance and win, and check Grey Cup futures prices against fair chances.
Chance to win the Grey Cup
Division semi-finals
Bye (first place)
- AlouettesEast Division
- ElksWest Division
East Semi-Final
Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 p.m. ET
- HArgonauts51%
- Blue Bombers49%
West Semi-Final
Sat, Oct 31, 4:30 p.m. ET
- HLions59%
- Roughriders41%
Division finals
East Final
Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 p.m. ET
- HAlouettes75%
- Argonautsplays: 51%12%
- Blue Bombersplays: 49%14%
West Final
Sat, Nov 7, 6:30 p.m. ET
- HElks69%
- Lionsplays: 59%19%
- Roughridersplays: 41%12%
Grey Cup
Grey Cup
Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 p.m. ET
- Alouettesplays: 75%44%
- Elksplays: 69%34%
- Lionsplays: 19%7.1%
- Blue Bombersplays: 14%5.8%
+ 2 more possible
Chance to reach each round
| Team | Playoffs | Division final | Grey Cup | Wins it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal AlouettesEast Division · 28 ptsFirst place: a bye to the East Final, at home. Wins the Grey Cup: 44%. | 100% | 100% | 75% | 44% |
| Edmonton ElksWest Division · 26 ptsFirst place: a bye to the West Final, at home. Wins the Grey Cup: 34%. | 100% | 100% | 69% | 34% |
| BC LionsWest Division · 20 ptsHosts the Roughriders in the West Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 7.1%. | 100% | 59% | 19% | 7.1% |
| Winnipeg Blue BombersWest Division · 18 ptsCrossover team. Plays at the Argonauts in the East Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 5.8%. | 100% | 49% | 14% | 5.8% |
| Toronto ArgonautsEast Division · 18 ptsHosts the Blue Bombers in the East Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 4.4%. | 100% | 51% | 12% | 4.4% |
| Saskatchewan RoughridersWest Division · 20 ptsPlays at the Lions in the West Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 4.3%. | 100% | 41% | 12% | 4.3% |
| Calgary StampedersWest Division · 18 ptsOut of the playoffs. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Hamilton Tiger-CatsEast Division · 12 ptsOut of the playoffs. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ottawa RedblacksEast Division · 2 ptsOut of the playoffs. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Chances are exact for this bracket: every combination of results is counted, each game from our ratings; played games are fixed. A home club hosts every playoff game but the Grey Cup.
From 2027 the CFL plays a new playoff format: eight teams, Division Showdowns and Play-In Games, then reseeding each round.
Updated 2026-10-29 17:04 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from game results since 2018. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.1% of games; at a neutral site (the Grey Cup) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 40 × (result − chance), more after a rout and less after a field-goal game. Between seasons each rating keeps 30% of its distance from average (rosters change).
Rules. Two points for a win, one for a tie. Through 2026 the first three of each division make the playoffs; first place gets a bye to the Division Final at home; second hosts third in the Division Semi-Final, unless the other division’s fourth-place team has more points than this third-place team – then it crosses over and takes that spot. Ties on points: most wins, then the games between the tied clubs (win share, then point difference, then points ratio), then division games, then all games, then a coin toss. All single games; playoff games cannot end tied.
Simulation. During the regular season we play every remaining game 10,000 times with the ratings (they keep moving inside each simulated season), apply the rules above and play out the playoffs. Once the field is set, the playoff chances are exact: every combination of results is counted, each game from the ratings.
Simplified. Scores of games not yet played are not simulated, so the point-difference tie-breakers use the games played so far; a tie of three or more clubs that partly splits is not started again from the first step. From 2027 the CFL reseeds after every round; the FAQ does not say who meets whom, so we pair the highest remaining seed with the lowest.
How good is the model
We replayed the 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 regular seasons: before each of the 405 games the ratings gave the home side a chance, then learned from the result. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better.
| Forecast | Log-loss | Brier | Winner picked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 0.626 | 0.217 | 66.9% |
| Home side at last season’s home win rate | 0.698 | 0.251 | 53.8% |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 0.693 | 0.249 | 50.0% |
Hold-out test: with settings fitted on 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024 only, the 2025 forecasts scored 0.695 against 0.693 for a coin flip – no better. Single CFL games are close to a coin flip more often than the ratings suggest; treat the chances as rough.
This season, for real: the settings were fixed before 2026; over its 81 regular-season games so far the forecasts scored a log-loss of 0.620 (coin flip 0.693) and the favourite won 59%.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–35% (on average 28%) | 54 | 27% |
| 35%–45% (on average 40%) | 52 | 37% |
| 45%–55% (on average 50%) | 82 | 49% |
| 55%–65% (on average 60%) | 87 | 65% |
| 65%–75% (on average 70%) | 70 | 66% |
| 75%–100% (on average 81%) | 60 | 78% |
CFL standings and playoff odds →CFL schedule and scores with win chances →Grey Cup →
Data: cfl.ca (schedule, scores, playoff games) and stats.cfl.ca (standings), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless the standings match the game results club by club and the playoff games fit the CFL rules. Rules: Wikipedia: Canadian Football League (points, tie-breakers, byes, crossover), CFL playoff format FAQ (format from 2027), CFL rule book 2026 (no ties).
The playoff rounds
Who qualifies
3 teams per divisionTeams are ranked by points, with 2 for a win. If teams are tied on points, the first tiebreaker is number of wins.
Division Semi-Final
Second place hosts third place. First place gets a bye week and goes straight to a home Division Final.
Crossover rule
A fourth-place team takes the third-place spot in the other division if it finishes with more points. Equal points are not enough.
Division Final
Each semifinal winner plays at the first-place team. The winner is the division champion.
Grey Cup
113th Grey CupThe two division champions meet at McMahon Stadium in Calgary on Sunday, November 15, 2026. Kickoff is 6 p.m. ET/5 p.m. MT.
What changes from 2027
| Part | Before 2027 | From 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Who qualifies | First 3 places per division, crossover possible | First 2 places per division plus next 4 by record |
| First round | Division Semi-Finals, first place has a bye | Division Showdowns: first place hosts second; Play-In Games |
| Play-In pairings | No Play-In Games | Fifth hosts eighth, sixth hosts seventh |
| Seeding | Division finish; crossover can move a fourth-place team | Reseeded after each round; higher seed hosts lower |
The CFL and the CFLPA agreed on the new format. Check the CFL's announcement for full details.
How the tool computes Grey Cup chances
- Rate each teamTeam ratings come from game results. The home team gets an edge.
- Chance for each gameTwo ratings give the chance that each team wins one possible playoff game.
- Multiply along the pathMultiply the chances of every game a team must win: semifinal, division final, Grey Cup.
- Add up possible opponentsFuture opponents are not known yet. Weight each possible opponent by its chance to get there, then add the results.
- Before the season endsThe tool simulates the rest of the standings and shows the projected bracket.
Grey Cup chance formula
P(Grey Cup) = P(win semifinal) × P(win division final) × P(win Grey Cup)
Example: A first-place team skips the semifinal, so its chance is P(win division final) × P(win Grey Cup) – one game fewer.
Fair chance vs futures price
Fair chance (tool)
- Built from team ratings and game results
- Updates after every playoff game
- One team will win, so all chances add up exactly, no margin
- A reference point, not a prediction
Grey Cup futures price
- For example, a list of 8 teams
- Implied chances add up to 106.4%: the margin is 6.4%
- +250 implies 28.6%; without margin it is 26.8%
- +2000 implies 4.8%
- Check any list with the margin calculator
Sources
- press.cfl.ca /grey-cup-playoffs-schedule-announced · checked Oct 29, 2026
- press.cfl.ca /saddle-up-for-the-113th-grey-cup-in-calgary · checked Oct 29, 2026
- static.cfl.ca /wp-content/uploads/2026_Rule-Book.pdf · checked Oct 29, 2026
- CFL.ca – FAQ: new regular season and revamped playoff format · checked Oct 29, 2026
- Wikipedia – Canadian Football League · checked Oct 29, 2026
Questions
What is the CFL crossover rule?
A fourth-place team moves into the other division's bracket if it finishes with more points than that division's third-place team. Equal points are not enough.
How do I read Grey Cup odds?
Turn each price into an implied chance with the odds converter. For example, +250 implies 28.6% (before removing the margin). A whole futures list adds up to more than the full probability; the extra is the bookmaker's margin.
Why do the bracket chances change?
The tool updates team ratings after new game results and recomputes every path. After each game, possible opponents and home fields change too.
Is betting on the Grey Cup legal in my province?
The answer depends on the laws of your province. Check your provincial lottery or regulator. This page explains the math and is not legal advice.