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NFL power rankings by the numbers (Elo)
Every NFL team ranked by an Elo rating built only from game results. Compare two ratings to get a win chance, and check how often the ratings called games right.
| # | Team | Rating | vs average | Record | Points diff | Games left: opponents | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle SeahawksNFC West · 4–3 | 136 | +5.7 | 4–3 | +43 | −8 | 77% | 8.2% |
| 2 | Buffalo BillsAFC East · 5–1 | 122 | +5.1 | 5–1 | +26 | +3 | 90.8% | 12% |
| 3 | Minnesota VikingsNFC North · 6–0 | 121 | +5.1 | 6–0 | +51 | +23 | 95.2% | 14% |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ersNFC West · 6–1 | 109 | +4.5 | 6–1 | +58 | −5 | 93.2% | 11% |
| 5 | Denver BroncosAFC West · 5–2 | 101 | +4.2 | 5–2 | +3 | −22 | 87% | 8.0% |
| 6 | Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South · 4–2 | 91 | +3.8 | 4–2 | +50 | −44 | 88% | 6.8% |
| 7 | New England PatriotsAFC East · 4–3 | 81 | +3.4 | 4–3 | +17 | +6 | 71% | 5.0% |
| 8 | Chicago BearsNFC North · 5–2 | 72 | +3.0 | 5–2 | +37 | +39 | 67% | 4.3% |
| 9 | Cincinnati BengalsAFC North · 4–2 | 60 | +2.5 | 4–2 | +41 | −35 | 77% | 5.1% |
| 10 | Los Angeles RamsNFC West · 3–4 | 57 | +2.4 | 3–4 | +11 | +12 | 34% | 1.8% |
| 11 | Kansas City ChiefsAFC West · 5–1 | 55 | +2.3 | 5–1 | +40 | +11 | 82% | 5.2% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North · 5–2 | 51 | +2.2 | 5–2 | +15 | −4 | 72% | 4.0% |
| 13 | Detroit LionsNFC North · 4–2 | 48 | +2.0 | 4–2 | +19 | +16 | 61% | 3.3% |
| 14 | Green Bay PackersNFC North · 5–3 | 30 | +1.3 | 5–3 | +7 | +35 | 50% | 1.7% |
| 15 | Baltimore RavensAFC North · 4–3 | 7 | +0.3 | 4–3 | +2 | +18 | 35% | 1.2% |
| 16 | Houston TexansAFC South · 2–5 | −2 | −0.1 | 2–5 | −5 | −33 | 19% | 0.4% |
| 17 | Atlanta FalconsNFC South · 3–4 | −9 | −0.4 | 3–4 | −2 | +0 | 41% | 1.0% |
| 18 | Cleveland BrownsAFC North · 5–2 | −17 | −0.7 | 5–2 | −13 | −9 | 58% | 1.2% |
| 19 | New York GiantsNFC East · 4–2–1 | −24 | −1.0 | 4–2–1 | +2 | +4 | 59% | 1.6% |
| 20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South · 2–5 | −25 | −1.0 | 2–5 | +11 | −14 | 27% | 0.8% |
| 21 | Dallas CowboysNFC East · 3–4 | −28 | −1.2 | 3–4 | +9 | −14 | 34% | 0.9% |
| 22 | Carolina PanthersNFC South · 3–4 | −56 | −2.3 | 3–4 | −15 | +29 | 25% | 0.5% |
| 23 | Philadelphia EaglesNFC East · 2–5 | −71 | −3.0 | 2–5 | −48 | −6 | 10.0% | 0.2% |
| 24 | New Orleans SaintsNFC South · 2–5 | −76 | −3.2 | 2–5 | −32 | −14 | 14% | 0.3% |
| 25 | Indianapolis ColtsAFC South · 2–5 | −79 | −3.3 | 2–5 | −26 | −17 | 7.3% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Las Vegas RaidersAFC West · 3–4 | −80 | −3.4 | 3–4 | −14 | +0 | 8.9% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Washington CommandersNFC East · 1–4–1 | −84 | −3.5 | 1–4–1 | −40 | −7 | 9.8% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Los Angeles ChargersAFC West · 0–6 | −99 | −4.1 | 0–6 | −61 | +8 | 0.6% | <0.1% |
| 29 | Miami DolphinsAFC East · 1–5 | −105 | −4.4 | 1–5 | −59 | +33 | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 30 | New York JetsAFC East · 2–5 | −111 | −4.7 | 2–5 | −13 | +20 | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Arizona CardinalsNFC West · 2–5 | −113 | −4.7 | 2–5 | −66 | −10 | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Tennessee TitansAFC South · 1–6 | −160 | −6.6 | 1–6 | −48 | +7 | 0.8% | 0% |
Rating: Elo points, 0 = league average; 100 rating points are worth about 4.2 points on the scoreboard. “Games left: opponents” is the average rating of the clubs still to play (higher = harder).
Head to head
The ratings make the Seahawks a 2.7-point favourite. Ratings: Seahawks 136, Bills 122. The home club gets 50 rating points.
Updated 2026-11-01 16:26 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from every game since 1999. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.2%; at a neutral site (London, the Super Bowl) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a rout moves them more than a field goal, and a favourite’s rout less than an underdog’s. Between seasons each rating keeps 50% of its distance from average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (50) and the carry-over (50%) are the best of a grid on the 2000–2022 seasons (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–2025 were kept aside to test them.
Spread and chance. A spread converts to a chance as P(favourite wins) = Φ(spread ÷ 11.7), Φ the normal curve; 11.7 is the value that fits the results of every closing spread of 1999–2022 best. A 3-point favourite wins about 60%, a 7-point favourite about 73%.
Simulation. The remaining games are played 10,000 times with the ratings (a simulated result moves them too), ties at the rate of the 10-minute-overtime era (0.3%), then the NFL tie-breaking procedure picks division winners and wild cards, and the playoffs are played out: the higher seed at home, the Super Bowl at a neutral site.
Simplified. Simulated games have no score, so the steps on points (combined ranking, net points) use the games played so far; net touchdowns are not in the data, so that step counts as level and the next one is a coin toss.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on 2000–2022; then the ratings forecast every one of the 816 regular-season games of 2023–2025 before kick-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home side” gives the home club its 2000–2022 win rate, 56.4%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 63.8% | 0.636 | 0.223 |
| Market: closing moneyline without the margin | 68.3% | 0.608 | 0.210 |
| Always the home side | 53.9% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
Honest result: the ratings beat a coin and the home side, but the closing market beats the ratings – it knows injuries, weather and starters. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 108 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 60% (market 63%, home side 51%); log-loss 0.664 (market 0.660, coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home side a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–30% (on average 24%) | 41 | 34% |
| 30%–40% (on average 36%) | 79 | 34% |
| 40%–50% (on average 45%) | 163 | 38% |
| 50%–60% (on average 55%) | 183 | 50% |
| 60%–70% (on average 65%) | 171 | 66% |
| 70%–80% (on average 74%) | 130 | 72% |
| 80%–100% (on average 84%) | 49 | 86% |
In-sample, 2000–2022 (5,903 games): ratings 64.2% winners picked, log-loss 0.630; market 66.3%, 0.612.
NFL playoff picture: seeds, odds and tiebreakers →NFL predictions: win chances for every game →NFL survivor pool planner: best path to survive →
Data: nflverse (schedule, scores, closing lines; licence CC BY), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless every club has its games, the division games match the alignment and the playoff games fit the bracket from the tie-breakers. Rules: NFL tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia: NFL playoffs.
How an Elo rating moves
- Start from a ratingEach team carries a rating built from its past games. A higher rating means stronger results so far.
- Winner gains, loser losesAfter each game, the winner gains rating points and the loser gives up points.
- Bigger win, more pointsThe rating is adjusted for margin of victory. A blowout moves more points than a narrow win.
- Upsets move moreWhen the lower-rated team wins, both ratings move more than after an expected result.
- Home edgeThe home team gets an edge in the forecast. The Super Bowl is treated as a neutral-site game, with no home edge.
Opinion rankings vs Elo rankings
Opinion power rankings
- A writer or panel orders the teams by judgment
- Can weigh injuries, trades and quarterback news
- Each writer uses their own rules
- A rank comes with no win chance
Elo power rankings
- One rule for every team
- Uses results only: who won, by how much, where
- The same results always give the same ranking
- A rating gap turns into a win chance
- Checked on seasons the model did not see
Rating gap and win chance
| Rating gap | Higher-rated team | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| No gap | About 50/50 at a neutral site | A toss-up game |
| Small gap | Slightly above even | Slight favourite, upsets common |
| Medium gap | Clearly above even | Clear favourite |
| Large gap | Well above even | Strong favourite, upsets still happen |
The tool includes the home edge and shows the exact chance for any two teams. Game-by-game chances are on NFL predictions.
What the rating sees and misses
Sees: results
Every win and loss in the game data counts.
Sees: margin of victory
Winning by a lot moves the rating more than winning by a little.
Sees: home field
Home teams get an edge, except at the neutral-site Super Bowl.
Misses: injuries
A key player out does not change the rating until results change.
Misses: trades and signings
Roster moves count only once they show up in game results.
Misses: quarterback changes
A new starter is invisible to the model. Weather and rest are not in it either.
How the accuracy card checks ratings
Unseen seasons
Settings were fitted on older seasons, then tested on recent seasons the model did not see.
Against a coin flip
Shows whether the ratings call winners better than picking at random.
Against always the home team
Compares the ratings with a simple rule: always pick the home team.
Against the market
Compares with closing lines in the nflverse data. No sportsbook is named.
Forecast against result
Calibration: do teams given a certain chance win about that often?
Questions
How often are the NFL power rankings updated?
Game data comes from nflverse, open NFL schedule and results data (licence CC BY 4.0). It refreshes by itself several times a day. The tool shows when it was updated and hides numbers if the data is too old.
What is NFL Elo?
Elo is a rating system. Each game moves points from the loser to the winner, more for big wins and upsets. The gap between two ratings, with the home edge, gives a win chance.
Do the rankings account for injuries or quarterback changes?
No. The ratings use only game results, margin of victory and home field. Injuries, trades, quarterbacks, weather and rest are not in the model, so check team news yourself.
Do Elo ratings beat the betting market?
This page makes no such claim. The accuracy card compares the ratings with closing lines in the nflverse data on seasons the model did not see. Read the card and judge the result yourself.
Where can I see NFL power rankings this week turned into game chances?
The same ratings feed NFL predictions for each game, the playoff picture for seeds, and the survivor pool planner.