Hockey
Stanley Cup odds explained: how futures prices work
Stanley Cup futures are bets on which team wins the Cup. Paste a list of team prices into the tool to see the margin of the whole list and each team's fair chance.
All the prices together promise 112.9% when only 100% can happen. Spread $100.00 over the whole list and about $11.40 is margin. All other teams: the price says 28.6%, without the margin 25.3% (fair 3.95).
| Team | Price | Implied | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| All other teams | 3.50 | 28.6% | 25.3%fair 3.95 |
| Team A | 5.50 | 18.2% | 16.1%fair 6.21 |
| Team B | 7.00 | 14.3% | 12.7%fair 7.90 |
| Team C | 8.00 | 12.5% | 11.1%fair 9.03 |
| Team D | 10.00 | 10.0% | 8.9%fair 11.29 |
| Team E | 11.00 | 9.1% | 8.1%fair 12.42 |
| Team F | 13.00 | 7.7% | 6.8%fair 14.67 |
| Team G | 15.00 | 6.7% | 5.9%fair 16.93 |
| Team H | 17.00 | 5.9% | 5.2%fair 19.19 |
In proportion: every team loses the same share of its implied chance, so every payout is cut by the same percentage. The example uses made-up teams and an “all other teams” line so the list is complete; a real list has every team.
How it is calculated
Implied chance = 1 ÷ decimal price. List total = sum of implied chances; anything over 100% is margin. Fair chance (in proportion) = implied ÷ list total. Power method: impliedk, with k chosen so the list adds up to 100%.
Payout cut = 1 − price ÷ fair price: how much less the price pays than a fair one. This only works with the full list: leave candidates out and the total looks smaller than it is.
Numbers to read first
Favourite price to chance
+250 = 28.6%A team at +250 has a chance by price of 28.6%. With the margin removed, its fair chance is 26.8%.
Margin on the whole list
6.4%In the example, the chances of all 8 teams add up to 106.4%. A fair list adds up to exactly the whole. The extra 6.4% is the margin.
Equal-chance baseline
3.1%If all 32 teams were equal, each would have 3.1%. Above that, the market rates a team better than average; below, worse. The example list shows 8 teams only.
Canadian teams and the Cup
Canadian teams and the Cup: see the numbers.
Example list: price, chance, fair chance
| Row | Price | Chance by price | Fair chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | +250 | 28.6% | 26.8% |
| Longest shot | +2000 | 4.8% | 4.8% ÷ 106.4% |
| Whole list (8 teams) | – | 106.4% | Adds up to the whole |
| Margin | – | 6.4% | None |
Example prices for illustration only, not current odds. Fair chance = chance by price ÷ list total.
How to read a futures list
- Turn prices into chancesThe calculator above converts each team's price into a chance by price.
- Add up every chanceThe chances add up to 106.4%. A fair list adds up to exactly the whole. The extra 6.4% is the margin.
- Remove the marginDivide each chance by the total. The result is the fair chance.
- Remember the costEvery price on the list carries the margin. Over many bets, that margin is what betting costs you.
Game chance vs. best-of-seven series chance
| Chance to win one game | Chance to win a best-of-seven series |
|---|---|
| Even | 50% |
| 55% | 60.8% |
| 60% | 71.0% |
A 55% team sweeps a series only 9.2% of the time. More on the NHL playoffs format.
Questions
How do Stanley Cup odds work?
Each team gets a price for winning the Cup. The price converts into a chance by price. Together the chances add up to more than the whole, and the extra is the margin.
What does +250 mean for a Stanley Cup winner?
It is a chance by price of 28.6%; with the list margin removed, the fair chance in our example is 26.8%. The calculator above shows the payout on its example stake: $35.00 back if the team wins, stake included.
Why do the chances on a Stanley Cup list add up to too much?
The margin is built into every price. In the example, the list totals 106.4%, a margin of 6.4%. The margin calculator removes it.
Are Conn Smythe odds read the same way?
Yes, they work the same way: convert each price, add up the list and divide by the total. See NHL awards odds.
Is Stanley Cup betting legal in Canada?
The answer depends on the laws of your province. This page is not legal advice. Check your provincial lottery or gaming authority.