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Esports betting explained: Bo1, Bo3, Bo5 and map handicaps
Enter a chance per map or the two match prices. The calculator shows how the series format changes each team's match chance, map handicaps and total maps.
With a 60.0% chance per map, Team A wins the Bo3 about 65 times in 100. The underdog, Team B, pulls off the upset 40.0% of the time in a Bo1, 35.2% in a Bo3 and 31.7% in a Bo5: the longer the series, the less luck matters.
Bo1 vs Bo3 vs Bo5
Bo1Bo3Bo5
Each line: the favourite’s chance to win the match for a given chance per map. The gap between the lines is the upset chance the longer format takes away.
Exact map score
| Map score | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Team A 2–0 | 36.0% | 2.78 |
| Team A 2–1 | 28.8% | 3.47 |
| Team B 1–2 | 19.2% | 5.21 |
| Team B 0–2 | 16.0% | 6.25 |
Map handicap
Total maps
How it is calculated
Every map is treated as independent with the same chance p for Team A. In a best of three, Team A needs two map wins: 2–0 has chance p², 2–1 has chance 2·p²·(1−p) (the lost map is the first or the second).
In general Team A wins a best of N (N odd, w = (N+1)/2 wins needed) with chance Σ C(w−1+k, k)·p^w·(1−p)^k over k = 0 … w−1 lost maps. A best of two plays both maps, so 1–1 is a draw.
From prices: the margin is removed proportionally (each 1/price divided by their sum), then we search for the map chance that gives that series chance.
Dota 2 team ratings →CS2 Major math →League of Legends series math →Margin and no-vig calculator →
How series length changes the odds
| Format | Maps needed to win | At 55% per map | At 60% per map |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo1 | One | 55.0% | 60.0% |
| Bo3 | Two | 57.5% | 64.8% |
| Bo5 | Three | 59.3% | 68.3% |
Match chance of the favourite. Bo2: both maps are played and 1–1 is a draw. At 55% per map the draw chance is 49.5%.
Map handicap: −1.5 vs +1.5
Favourite −1.5 maps (Bo3)
- Wins only on a 2–0 score
- At 55% per map: 30.3%
- At 60% per map: 36.0%
- Lower chance than the match winner, so a longer price
Underdog +1.5 maps (Bo3)
- Wins if the underdog takes at least one map
- Loses only on 0–2
- At 55% for the favourite: 69.7%
- At 60% for the favourite: 64.0%
Main esports markets
Match winner
64.8%Who wins the series. In a Bo3 with 60% per map, the favourite's chance is 64.8%.
Map handicap
47.5%Like a point spread, counted in maps. Bo5 favourite −1.5 needs 3–0 or 3–1: 47.5% at 60% per map.
Total maps
48.0%Bo3 over 2.5 maps wins on a 2–1 score for either team: 48.0% at 60% per map.
Map winner
A bet on one map only. Same math as a Bo1: the match chance equals the map chance.
Removing the margin from match odds
Implied chance = 1 ÷ decimal price; fair chance = one implied chance ÷ sum of both
Example: For example, two equal prices, each 1 ÷ price: 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%. Fair chance 50.0% each. Check with the margin calculator.
Series math by game
Questions
What does Bo3 mean in esports betting?
Best of three maps: the first team to win two maps wins the match. If one team wins the first two, the third map is not played.
Why is the favourite shorter in a Bo5 than in a Bo1?
A longer series gives the stronger team more maps to show its edge. At 55% per map: Bo1 55.0%, Bo3 57.5%, Bo5 59.3%, if maps are independent.
What does +1.5 maps mean in esports odds?
A map handicap. In a Bo3 the bet wins if the team takes at least one map, so it loses only on 0–2. In a Bo5 it loses on 0–3 or 1–3.
Can an esports match end in a draw?
In a Bo2, yes: both maps are played, so 1–1 is a draw. At 55% per map the draw chance is 49.5%.