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Tennis match probability calculator
Estimate the share of points each player wins on serve. The calculator turns it into hold, set and match chances under standard tennis scoring.
At 6–6 the points count as a tie-break: 0, 1, 2, 3…
Player A holds serve 81.3% of the time, Player B 77.6%. On average A wins 51.0% of all points – and about 60 matches in 100.
How a small edge grows
A’s average chance at each level (point and game: both players serving half the time). Blue past the middle line – A is the favourite.
Set betting: exact score in sets
Total games
Expected 25.3 games. Over 25.5: 48.2%, under: 51.8%.
How it is calculated
Each player wins a point on their own serve with a fixed chance; points are independent. From that we follow every score exactly (no simulation): a game from 0–0 with deuce, a tie-break with its serve order (one point, then two each), a set to 6 games with a tie-break at 6–6, and the match.
Hold chance from 0–0: p⁴(1 + 4q + 10q²) + 20p³q³ × p²/(1 − 2pq), where q = 1 − p. A set and match chance does not depend on who serves first, but the expected number of games does (by up to a few tenths of a game).
Checked against the published set-score formulas of Newton and Keller (2005) and against a simulation of whole matches played point by point.
Tennis odds to chances →National Bank Open in facts →Odds converter →
Rules: itftennis.com, atptour.com, wtatennis.com (checked Oct 28, 2026).
Tennis scoring for beginners
| Unit | How to win it | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Game | First to four points | From deuce (three points each), win two in a row |
| No-Ad game | At deuce, one deciding point | The next point wins the game |
| Tie-break set | First to 6 games, with a lead of at least two games | At 6 games all, a tie-break is played |
| Advantage set | First to 6 games, with a lead of at least two games | No tie-break; play goes on until one player leads by two |
| Tie-break | First to 7 points, with a lead of at least two points | Due server serves one point, then two each in turn |
| Match | Best of three or best of five sets | Win two sets or three sets |
| Final-set tie-break | First to 10 points, with a lead of at least two points | Grand Slams: at 6 games all in the final set |
ATP and WTA singles: best of three tie-break sets. Grand Slam men's singles main draw: best of five; other Grand Slam matches: best of three unless the event decides otherwise.
Serve points won and chance to hold
| Points won on serve | Chance to hold serve |
|---|---|
| 55% | 62.3% |
| 60% | 73.6% |
| 65% | 83.0% |
| 70% | 90.1% |
Hold = the server wins the game. Standard game with deuce, every point independent. A small edge per point becomes a bigger edge per game.
Example: from points to match
- Estimate serve strengthPlayer A wins 64% of points on serve, Player B 62%. Overall, A wins about 51% of points.
- Convert to holdsA holds serve in 81.3% of service games, B in 77.6%.
- Win one setWith tie-break sets, A wins a set 56.7% of the time.
- Best of threeA wins the match 59.9% of the time. Expected match length: 25.3 games.
- Best of fiveThe same serve strengths give A a match chance of 62.4%.
Best of three vs best of five
Best of three
- Win two sets to win the match
- ATP and WTA singles: tie-break sets
- Fewer games, more room for an upset
- Example: A wins 59.9%
Best of five
- Win three sets to win the match
- Grand Slam men's singles main draw
- More games let a small edge add up
- Example: A wins 62.4%
From match chance to price
Convert chance to odds
Turn a match chance into American, decimal or fractional odds.
Remove the margin
A sportsbook price includes a margin. Remove it before comparing with the fair price.
Expected value
Compare your estimate with a price. Your estimate can be wrong, and betting has a cost.
Tennis markets
How match, set and game odds work.
National Bank Open
The Canadian Open explained.
Sources
- ITF – 2026 Rules of Tennis · checked Oct 28, 2026
- ATP Official Rulebook 2025 – Chapter I, ATP Circuit Regulations · checked Oct 28, 2026
- WTA – 2026 Official Rulebook · checked Oct 28, 2026
- Official Grand Slam Rulebook 2026 · checked Oct 28, 2026
Questions
How does tennis scoring work?
Points make games, games make sets, sets make the match. A game is first to four points, two in a row from deuce. A set is first to 6 games with a lead of at least two games; at 6 games all, a tie-break follows.
What are the tie-break rules in tennis?
First to 7 points, with a lead of at least two points. The player due to serve takes the first point, then each player serves two in turn. At Grand Slams the final set ends with a 10-point tie-break.
What is a No-Ad game in tennis?
When each player has won three points (deuce), one deciding point is played. Whoever wins it wins the game – no need for two points in a row.
Why does a small serve edge give a bigger match edge?
The edge is applied again at every step: point, game, set, match. In the example, winning about 51% of points becomes 59.9% of best-of-three matches and 62.4% of best-of-five matches.
How do I estimate points won on serve?
That input is your own estimate; the calculator does the rest. Try a range of values to see how much the match chance changes.