Hockey
NHL awards odds: Norris Trophy, Hart, Calder, Conn Smythe
Paste the prices of every candidate for an NHL award – Norris, Hart (NHL MVP), Calder or Conn Smythe – and the board shows each chance by price, the list margin and fair chances.
All the prices together promise 109.0% when only 100% can happen. Spread $100.00 over the whole list and about $8.27 is margin. Player A: the price says 33.3%, without the margin 30.6% (fair 3.27).
| Player | Price | Implied | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.6%fair 3.27 |
| Player B | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20.4%fair 4.91 |
| Player C | 6.00 | 16.7% | 15.3%fair 6.54 |
| Player D | 9.00 | 11.1% | 10.2%fair 9.81 |
| Any other player | 10.00 | 10.0% | 9.2%fair 10.90 |
| Player E | 13.00 | 7.7% | 7.1%fair 14.17 |
| Player F | 21.00 | 4.8% | 4.4%fair 22.89 |
| Player G | 31.00 | 3.2% | 3.0%fair 33.79 |
In proportion: every player loses the same share of its implied chance, so every payout is cut by the same percentage. The example uses made-up players and an “any other player” line so the list is complete.
How it is calculated
Implied chance = 1 ÷ decimal price. List total = sum of implied chances; anything over 100% is margin. Fair chance (in proportion) = implied ÷ list total. Power method: impliedk, with k chosen so the list adds up to 100%.
Payout cut = 1 − price ÷ fair price: how much less the price pays than a fair one. This only works with the full list: leave candidates out and the total looks smaller than it is.
Example award list: chance by price
| Line | Price | Chance by price | Fair chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | +250 | 28.6% | 26.8% |
| Longest price | +2000 | 4.8% | 4.8% ÷ 106.4% |
| All 8 candidates | – | 106.4% | adds up to one whole |
| Margin of the list | – | 6.4% | none |
Example only, not a real market. Chance by price = 1 ÷ decimal price, for example 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.0%.
Margin of the whole list
Margin = (1 ÷ decimal price, added up for every candidate) − 1
Example: The 8 chances add up to 106.4%, so the margin of this list is 6.4%.
Fair chance without the margin
Fair chance = chance by price ÷ sum of all chances in the list
Example: Favourite: 28.6% ÷ 106.4% = 26.8%.
Award prices at a glance
Short price
+150 = 40.0%Decimal 2.50, fractional 3/2. A short price means the list treats the player as a strong favourite.
Middle price
+500 = 16.7%Decimal 6.00. Profit per hundred dollars staked: $500.00.
Long price
+1000 = 9.1%Decimal 11.00. Profit per hundred dollars staked: $1,000.00.
Same math for teams
The Stanley Cup list works the same way: one price per team, one margin for the whole list.
NHL awards in one line each
- Hart Trophy
- Most valuable player to his team in the regular season. NHL MVP odds usually refer to this award.
- Norris Trophy
- Defenceman who shows the greatest all-round ability at the position.
- Calder Trophy
- Most proficient player in his first NHL season – the rookie award.
- Conn Smythe Trophy
- Most valuable player of the whole playoffs.
- Vezina Trophy
- Award for the goaltender judged the top performer at the position.
- Art Ross Trophy
- Player with the most points in the regular season. Decided by the stats.
- Rocket Richard Trophy
- Player with the most goals in the regular season. Also decided by the stats.
Questions
How do I read Norris Trophy odds?
A price like +1000 equals decimal 11.00, a chance by price of 9.1%. Divide one by the decimal price. The odds converter does it for any format.
Are NHL MVP odds the same as Hart Trophy odds?
Usually. NHL MVP odds usually means the Hart Trophy list: the award for the most valuable player to his team in the regular season.
What are Conn Smythe odds?
Prices on which player is named most valuable in the playoffs. See how the playoff rounds work on NHL playoffs.
Why do the chances in an award list add up to more than the whole?
Each price includes the margin. In the example list the 8 chances sum to 106.4%; the extra 6.4% is the list margin.
Is betting on NHL awards legal in Canada?
The answer depends on the laws of your province; this page is not legal advice.