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NBA play-in tournament: format and odds
The NBA play-in decides the last two playoff seeds in each conference. The bracket above shows the teams at places 7–10, each game's win chance and each team's exact chance to get through.
Eastern Conference: the Play-In if the season ended today
Hawks win 61% (fair odds 1.65); Hornets 39% (2.54).
Magic win 62% (fair odds 1.61); Heat 38% (2.65).
| # | Team | Rating | 7th seed | 8th seed | Out | Lottery ball(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atlanta Hawks3–4 | 1,527 | 61% | 24% | 16% | 1 ball if they lose game 1 (39%) |
| 8 | Charlotte Hornets3–4 | 1,512 | 39% | 35% | 25% | 1 ball if they lose game 1 (61%) |
| 9 | Orlando Magic2–3 | 1,525 | 0% | 26% | 74% | 2 balls |
| 10 | Miami Heat2–4 | 1,498 | 0% | 15% | 85% | 2 balls |
Exact: the three games give eight outcomes, each weighted by the rating chances (home court to the better seed). The winner of game 1 is the 7th seed; the 8th seed goes to the winner of game 3.
Who ends up in the Play-In
| Team | Finish 7th–10th | Seeds 1–6 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat2–4 | 50% | 27% | 50% |
| Charlotte Hornets3–4 | 49% | 32% | 56% |
| Atlanta Hawks3–4 | 45% | 43% | 67% |
| Orlando Magic2–3 | 43% | 44% | 66% |
| Toronto Raptors3–2 | 39% | 52% | 73% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers4–2 | 28% | 67% | 84% |
| Philadelphia 76ers6–1 | 24% | 73% | 87% |
| Indiana Pacers2–4 | 24% | 3.2% | 12% |
| Boston Celtics4–1 | 19% | 79% | 90.2% |
| Chicago Bulls1–5 | 19% | 2.1% | 8.6% |
| Washington Wizards3–3 | 18% | 2.5% | 8.1% |
| Milwaukee Bucks1–5 | 14% | 1.1% | 5.5% |
| New York Knicks2–4 | 13% | 86% | 94.9% |
| Detroit Pistons5–1 | 10% | 89% | 95.6% |
| Brooklyn Nets0–5 | 5.7% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
From 10,000 simulated finishes of the regular season, Play-In and playoffs.
Updated 2026-11-01 19:25 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating built from every game since 1984–85 (FiveThirtyEight’s method; our code reproduces their published ratings game by game). Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 60) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 60 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 58.6%. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a blowout moves them more than a one-point game, a favourite’s blowout less than an underdog’s. Each new season starts 40% of the way from last season’s rating to the average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (60) and the carry-over are the best of a grid on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–24 to 2025–26 were kept aside to test them.
Simulation. The games left are played 10,000 times with the ratings (a simulated result moves them too), the NBA tie-break procedure sets the seeds, then the Play-In and every best-of-seven (home court to the better record, games 1, 2, 5 and 7 at home) are played out.
Simplified. Simulated games have no score, so the last tie-break step (point differential) uses the games played so far; games abroad count as home games of the listed home team.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, rest days or who sits out.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on the seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23; then the ratings forecast every one of the 3,693 regular-season games of 2023–24 to 2025–26 before tip-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home team” gives the home side its win rate of the fit seasons, 57.9%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 66.9% | 0.607 | 0.210 |
| Always the home team | 54.7% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
No market comparison. We found no free source of NBA closing betting lines that may be published, so this card cannot show how the ratings do against the betting market – which knows injuries and rest days and is usually sharper. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 88 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 58% (home team 52%); log-loss 0.640 (coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home team a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home team | Games | Home team won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–20% (on average 16%) | 90 | 7% |
| 20%–35% (on average 29%) | 442 | 25% |
| 35%–50% (on average 43%) | 744 | 40% |
| 50%–65% (on average 58%) | 1,031 | 55% |
| 65%–80% (on average 72%) | 924 | 69% |
| 80%–100% (on average 85%) | 462 | 85% |
In-sample, seasons 2010–11 to 2022–23 (15,421 games): ratings 66.0% winners picked, log-loss 0.613; home team 57.9%.
NBA standings and playoff odds →NBA draft lottery odds: new 3-2-1 simulator →Raptors schedule 2026-27 with win chances →
Data: schedule and scores from balldontlie, checked every 6 hours against Wikipedia (team season pages and standings; licence CC BY-SA) – a score or a record that differs stops the update. Rating history before 2015–16: FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo (CC BY). Rules: NBA tie-break procedures, NBA: Play-In Tournament.
How the play-in works, step by step
- Who plays inThe first 6 teams of each conference, ranked by winning percentage, go straight to the playoffs. Places 7–10 play for the last two seeds.
- No. 7 hosts No. 8Winner: 7th seed. Loser: another chance in the last game.
- No. 9 hosts No. 10Winner: moves on to the last game. Loser: out.
- Last game for 8th seedThe loser of 7 vs 8 hosts the winner of 9 vs 10. Winner: 8th seed. Loser: out.
Wins needed from each place
| Start place | Wins needed | Highest finish | Possible ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 or No. 8 | One win in two tries | 7th seed | 7th seed, 8th seed or out |
| No. 9 or No. 10 | Two wins in a row | 8th seed | 8th seed or out |
Only the 7 vs 8 winner can be the 7th seed.
Chance for No. 9 or No. 10
Gets through = win chance in game one × win chance in the last game
Example: Like a two-leg parlay: both games must be won, so the result is below either game's chance.
Second chance vs win or go home
No. 7 or No. 8
- A first-game win means the 7th seed.
- A loss means a home game against the 9 vs 10 winner.
- Out only after two losses.
- 8th seed chance = lose game one × win the last game.
No. 9 or No. 10
- Any loss ends the season.
- Highest finish is the 8th seed.
- Plays the last game away.
- 8th seed chance = win game one × win the last game.
How the chances are worked out
Elo ratings from results
Ratings come from past game results with the FiveThirtyEight NBA Elo method. The winner takes points from the loser; an underdog's big win moves more than a favourite's rout.
Home edge, then pull-back
The host gets a home edge, none at a neutral site. Between seasons, every rating moves part of the way back to the league average.
History and testing
History comes from FiveThirtyEight's public NBA Elo file (CC BY 4.0); our version reproduces their ratings. Settings were chosen on older seasons and checked on unseen recent ones.
Not in the model
Injuries, rest days, trades and lineups. The ratings use game results only.
Exact, not simulated
The tool multiplies win chances along each path through the three games. Same data as the standings page; numbers are hidden if the data is too old.
Sources
- nba.com /news/nba-play-in-tournament · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/NBA_playoffs · checked Nov 1, 2026
- nba.com /news/nba-board-governors-approve-new-draft-lott… · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
How does the NBA play-in work?
Places 7–10 in each conference play. No. 7 hosts No. 8; the winner is the 7th seed. No. 9 hosts No. 10; the loser is out. The loser of 7 vs 8 hosts the 9 vs 10 winner for the 8th seed.
How many teams play in the NBA play-in tournament?
4 in each conference: places 7–10. The first 6 places go straight to the playoffs; the play-in fills the last two of the 8 playoff spots.
Can the No. 10 team make the playoffs?
Yes, as the 8th seed. It must win at No. 9, then win away against the loser of 7 vs 8. Its chance is the two win chances multiplied.
What do play-in teams get in the draft lottery?
From the 2027 draft, the No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds get 2 lottery balls each and the 7 vs 8 losers 1 each.
Where do the play-in win chances come from?
From Elo ratings built on past game results, with a home edge for the host. The model does not know injuries, rest or lineups, so the chances are estimates.