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NFL playoff picture: seeds, odds and tiebreakers
See each team's chance for every AFC and NFC seed, test scenarios with upcoming games and check which tiebreaker separates teams with the same record.
AFC playoff picture: seeds if the season ended today
| Seed | Team | Playoffs | Win division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City ChiefsAFC West · 5–1 · about 11 wins | 82% | 44% | 14% | 5.2% |
| 2 | Buffalo BillsAFC East · 5–1 · about 12 wins | 90.8% | 69% | 28% | 12% |
| 3 | Cleveland BrownsAFC North · 5–2 · about 10 wins | 58% | 22% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 4 | Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South · 4–2 · about 11 wins | 88% | 84% | 10% | 6.8% |
| 5 | Denver BroncosAFC West · 5–2 · about 12 wins | 87% | 54% | 19% | 8.0% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North · 5–2 · about 11 wins | 72% | 32% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| 7 | Cincinnati BengalsAFC North · 4–2 · about 11 wins | 77% | 39% | 10% | 5.1% |
| New England PatriotsAFC East · 4–3 · about 10 wins | 71% | 30% | 5.7% | 5.0% | |
| Baltimore RavensAFC North · 4–3 · about 9 wins | 35% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | |
| Las Vegas RaidersAFC West · 3–4 · about 7 wins | 8.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| New York JetsAFC East · 2–5 · about 5 wins | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Indianapolis ColtsAFC South · 2–5 · about 6 wins | 7.3% | 5.2% | 0% | 0.2% | |
| Houston TexansAFC South · 2–5 · about 7 wins | 19% | 9.9% | <0.1% | 0.4% | |
| Miami DolphinsAFC East · 1–5 · about 5 wins | 1.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Tennessee TitansAFC South · 1–6 · about 4 wins | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | |
| Los Angeles ChargersAFC West · 0–6 · about 4 wins | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0% | <0.1% |
Seeds 1–4 are the division leaders, 5–7 the wild cards; the line is the playoff cut. Chances: share of 10,000 simulated finishes of the season and playoffs.
What if: week 8
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETRavens: 27% if Bills win, 56% if Ravens win; Bills: 95.4% if Bills win, 79% if Ravens win@Model: Bills 72%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETBengals: 81% if Bengals win, 57% if Titans win; Browns: 56% if Bengals win, 63% if Titans win@Model: Bengals 82%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETSteelers: 71% if Cowboys win, 74% if Cardinals win@Model: Cowboys 69%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET@Model: Lions 47%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETJaguars: 92.8% if Jaguars win, 73% if Colts win; Colts: 3.3% if Jaguars win, 21% if Colts win@Model: Jaguars 78%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETRaiders: 3.6% if Jets win, 15% if Raiders win; Jets: 4.3% if Jets win, 0.4% if Raiders win@Model: Jets 53%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETBrowns: 47% if Steelers win, 77% if Browns win; Steelers: 82% if Steelers win, 53% if Browns win@Model: Steelers 66%
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ETBengals: 78% if Buccaneers win, 75% if Falcons win@Model: Buccaneers 55%
- Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 p.m. ETPatriots: 71% if Rams win, 69% if Chargers win@Model: Rams 77%
- Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ETChiefs: 76% if Broncos win, 94.1% if Chiefs win; Broncos: 93.3% if Broncos win, 75% if Chiefs win@Model: Broncos 63%
- Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ETPatriots: 52% if Dolphins win, 79% if Patriots win; Ravens: 38% if Dolphins win, 34% if Patriots win@Model: Dolphins 31%
- Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 p.m. ET@Model: Commanders 55%
- Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET@Model: Seahawks 66%
Pick winners to see how the chances move. The swing under each game is how much one result changes a club’s playoff chance.
Tie-breakers, step by step
Browns, Steelers, all 5–2. First place in the AFC North: Browns.
- Head-to-head (two-club format)
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
Browns 100.0%Steelers 0.0%Through: Browns.
- Head-to-head (two-club format)
Bills, Chiefs, all 5–1. Higher seed among the division winners: Chiefs.
- Record in conference games (two-club format)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
Bills 75.0%Chiefs 100.0%Through: Chiefs.
- Record in conference games (two-club format)
Broncos, Steelers, all 5–2. Seed 5: Broncos.
- Record in conference games (two-club format)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
Broncos 66.7%Steelers 50.0%Through: Broncos.
- Record in conference games (two-club format)
Bracket if the season ended today
Wild Card round
Bye (seed 1)
- 1Chiefs
Wild Card
- 2Bills66%
- 7Bengals34%
Wild Card
- 6Steelers53%
- 3Browns47%
Wild Card
- 4Jaguars56%
- 5Broncos44%
Divisional round
Divisional
- 1Chiefs55%
- 6Steelersplays: 35%15%
- 7Bengalsplays: 34%15%
- 4Jaguarsplays: 17%8.3%
+ 1 more possible
Divisional
- 2Billsplays: 66%44%
- 3Brownsplays: 47%15%
- 4Jaguarsplays: 38%19%
- 5Broncosplays: 31%16%
+ 1 more possible
Conference final
AFC Championship
- 1Chiefsplays: 55%29%
- 2Billsplays: 44%25%
- 4Jaguarsplays: 27%14%
- 5Broncosplays: 22%12%
+ 3 more possible
Super Bowl
Neutral site
- Vikingsplays: 44%25%
- Chiefsplays: 29%13%
- Billsplays: 25%14%
- 49ersplays: 24%13%
+ 10 more possible
If the season ended today: today’s seeds, each game from today’s ratings, every combination of results counted exactly. Higher seed hosts; the Super Bowl is at a neutral site.
Updated 2026-11-01 16:26 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from every game since 1999. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.2%; at a neutral site (London, the Super Bowl) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a rout moves them more than a field goal, and a favourite’s rout less than an underdog’s. Between seasons each rating keeps 50% of its distance from average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (50) and the carry-over (50%) are the best of a grid on the 2000–2022 seasons (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–2025 were kept aside to test them.
Spread and chance. A spread converts to a chance as P(favourite wins) = Φ(spread ÷ 11.7), Φ the normal curve; 11.7 is the value that fits the results of every closing spread of 1999–2022 best. A 3-point favourite wins about 60%, a 7-point favourite about 73%.
Simulation. The remaining games are played 10,000 times with the ratings (a simulated result moves them too), ties at the rate of the 10-minute-overtime era (0.3%), then the NFL tie-breaking procedure picks division winners and wild cards, and the playoffs are played out: the higher seed at home, the Super Bowl at a neutral site.
Simplified. Simulated games have no score, so the steps on points (combined ranking, net points) use the games played so far; net touchdowns are not in the data, so that step counts as level and the next one is a coin toss.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on 2000–2022; then the ratings forecast every one of the 816 regular-season games of 2023–2025 before kick-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home side” gives the home club its 2000–2022 win rate, 56.4%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 63.8% | 0.636 | 0.223 |
| Market: closing moneyline without the margin | 68.3% | 0.608 | 0.210 |
| Always the home side | 53.9% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
Honest result: the ratings beat a coin and the home side, but the closing market beats the ratings – it knows injuries, weather and starters. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 108 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 60% (market 63%, home side 51%); log-loss 0.664 (market 0.660, coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home side a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–30% (on average 24%) | 41 | 34% |
| 30%–40% (on average 36%) | 79 | 34% |
| 40%–50% (on average 45%) | 163 | 38% |
| 50%–60% (on average 55%) | 183 | 50% |
| 60%–70% (on average 65%) | 171 | 66% |
| 70%–80% (on average 74%) | 130 | 72% |
| 80%–100% (on average 84%) | 49 | 86% |
In-sample, 2000–2022 (5,903 games): ratings 64.2% winners picked, log-loss 0.630; market 66.3%, 0.612.
NFL predictions: win chances for every game →NFL power rankings by the numbers (Elo) →NFL survivor pool planner: best path to survive →
Data: nflverse (schedule, scores, closing lines; licence CC BY), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless every club has its games, the division games match the alignment and the playoff games fit the bracket from the tie-breakers. Rules: NFL tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia: NFL playoffs.
How the playoff field is set
Teams per conference
7Since 2020, chosen by regular season winning percentage.
Division winners
1–4The 4 champions, seeded by overall record.
Wild cards
5–7The 3 other teams with the top overall records.
Bye for the top seed
1 byeOnly the top seed skips the wild-card round.
Wild-card round
Higher seed hosts: 2 hosts 7, 3 hosts 6, 4 hosts 5.
Divisional round is reseeded
The lowest remaining seed travels to the top seed.
Conference finals, Super Bowl
The higher seed hosts the conference final. The Super Bowl is at a predetermined site.
CFL: other playoff rules
Canada's league has its own playoff format.
Division tie-breakers, in order
| Step | What is compared |
|---|---|
| Head-to-head | Record in games between the teams |
| Division record | Record in division games |
| Common games | Record against common opponents |
| Conference record | Record in conference games |
| Strength of victory | All games |
| Strength of schedule | All games |
| Conference points rank | Scored rank plus allowed rank; lowest wins |
| League points rank | Same, among all teams |
| Net points, common | Common games |
| Net points, all | All games |
| Net touchdowns | All games |
| Coin toss | – |
The first step that separates the teams decides. Record means win-loss-tie percentage; a tie counts as half a win and half a loss.
Division vs wild-card tie-breakers
Division tie-breaker
- Teams from the same division
- Head-to-head, division record, common games
- Three or more: head-to-head among all first
- 12 steps, last is a coin toss
Wild-card tie-breaker
- Teams from different divisions
- Head-to-head if applicable, then conference record
- Common games need at least 4
- Three or more: division tie-breaker first, then head-to-head sweep
- 11 steps for two teams
How the seed chances are computed
- Read the resultsnflverse open data, refreshed several times a day.
- Rate every teamElo ratings from results, adjusted for margin, with a home edge – see NFL power rankings.
- Play the rest many timesEach remaining game is simulated many times.
- Apply NFL rulesDivision winners, wild cards and tie-breakers seed each finish.
- Play the bracketPlayoffs simulated, Super Bowl on a neutral field.
- Count the shareChance = share of runs with that seed. Settings fitted on older seasons, tested on unseen ones in the accuracy card.
Sources
- nfl.com /standings/tie-breaking-procedures · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/National_Football_League_playoffs · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/National_Football_League · checked Nov 1, 2026
- github.com /nflverse/nflverse-data · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
How many teams make the NFL playoffs?
7 per conference since 2020: 4 division winners seeded 1–4 and 3 wild cards seeded 5–7. Only the top seed gets a bye.
How do NFL tiebreakers work?
Steps run in a fixed order, starting with head-to-head; the first step that separates the teams decides. Division and wild-card ties use different lists, ending with a coin toss.
How does a tie game count in the NFL standings?
A tie counts as half a win and half a loss for both teams.
Is this an NFL playoff predictor or playoff machine?
Both: chances come from simulating the rest of the season many times, and the what-if lets you pick winners of upcoming games.
Where do the NFL playoff odds on this page come from?
From Elo ratings built on past results, not sportsbook prices. The accuracy card compares the model with closing lines; it does not claim to beat the market.