Hockey
NHL player props and goalie props: chance and fair odds
Turn a player's goals per game into a chance to score and fair odds, then compare that with the book's price. Below: how PROLINE treats overtime and lines in NHL player stat props.
At 0.40 goals a game, this player scores in about 33 games in 100 (about 1 in 3). A fair anytime price would be 3.03.
2 goals or more
6.2% · fair 16.25
Hat trick (3+)
0.8% · fair 126.16
No goal
67.0% of games
How it is calculated
Goals per game g = goals ÷ games. Goals in one game follow a Poisson pattern: P(at least one) = 1 − e−g; P(2+) = 1 − e−g(1 + g).
It assumes every game is alike: no change for line-up, power play, opponent or goalie. How overtime and shootouts count for player bets depends on the book’s rules.
Chance of at least one goal
P(scores) = 1 − e^(−λ). λ = player's goals per game. e = a fixed math constant.
Example: Goals per game 0.35: 1 − e^(−0.35) = 29.5%. Fair decimal odds = one ÷ chance = 3.39.
Goals per game to chance to score
| Item | Example player |
|---|---|
| Goals per game | 0.35 |
| Chance of one or more goals | 29.5% |
| Chance of two or more goals | 4.9% |
| Fair odds, American | +239 |
| Fair odds, decimal | 3.39 |
Values for the example player in the calculator above. A higher goals-per-game rate gives a higher chance and shorter fair odds.
What the model sees and misses
The Poisson model assumes
- Goals come at a steady average rate
- Goals per game is the only input
- Every game is the same
- One goal does not change the chance of the next
- A quick, simple estimate
Real chances also depend on
- Ice time in that game
- Power-play role and minutes
- Linemates, injuries and line changes
- The opposing team and goalie
- Empty-net time late in games
Check a book's prop price
- Get the model chanceEnter goals per game in the calculator above. It shows the chance of one or more goals and the fair odds.
- Convert the book's priceTurn the price into an implied chance. For example, −110 = 1.91 = 52.4%.
- Compare the twoA higher model chance only means the model disagrees with the price. The model can be wrong.
- Count the costEvery price includes a margin. See the expected value calculator – a positive estimate is not a win.
Shots, points and saves props
Shots on goal
Over or under a shots line. Same Poisson idea, with shots per game instead of goals.
Points
A point is a goal or an assist, so points per game is higher than goals per game.
Goalie saves
Saves depend on how many shots the opponent takes, not only on the goalie.
Other prop types
Live bets, futures, props and cash out explained side by side.
Hockey betting basics
Moneyline, puck line and totals before you move to props.
Sources
- olg.ca /en/proline/proline-game-conditions.html · checked Oct 27, 2026
Questions
How do you calculate anytime goal scorer odds?
Put the player's goals per game into 1 − e^(−λ) to get the chance to score, then divide one by that chance for fair decimal odds. With 0.35 goals per game, fair odds are 3.39.
Does overtime count for NHL player props on PROLINE?
The PROLINE Game Conditions say player and team stat markets include overtime but not the shootout, unless the offer states otherwise. Check the text of each offer.
Is the Poisson model accurate for NHL props?
It is a simple starting point. It treats every game the same, while real chances move with ice time, power-play role, linemates, the opposing goalie and empty-net minutes.
What happens if a combined prop lands exactly on the line?
In PROLINE combined prop offers, a result that ties a listed over/under or spread line counts as not accomplished, and the bet is settled as lost. A single over/under or spread exactly on the line is void instead.
Why is the book's price usually shorter than fair odds?
The book builds a margin into every price, so its implied chance is usually higher than the fair chance. Your model estimate can also be wrong. The margin calculator shows how big the margin is.