More sports
League of Legends Worlds and LoL betting math
Set Team A's chance to win a single game. The calculator below shows the series chance, exact scores, game handicaps and a knockout run for LoL betting at Worlds.
Team A wins a single game 60.0% of the time, so it takes the Bo5 about 68 times in 100. Winning 3 such series in a row: 31.8%.
Bo1 vs Bo3 vs Bo5
Bo1Bo3Bo5
Knockout run: Bo5 series in a row
Same chance in every series. Later opponents are usually stronger, so read the run as an optimistic guide.
Exact score
| Map score | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Team A 3–0 | 21.6% | 4.63 |
| Team A 3–1 | 25.9% | 3.86 |
| Team A 3–2 | 20.7% | 4.82 |
| Team B 2–3 | 13.8% | 7.23 |
| Team B 1–3 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| Team B 0–3 | 6.4% | 15.62 |
Map handicap
Total maps
How it is calculated
Every game is treated as independent with the same chance for Team A. A best of five is won 3–0, 3–1 or 3–2: chance p³ × (1 + 3(1−p) + 6(1−p)²).
A run of several series is the series chance multiplied once per series.
Tournament formats (which stages are Bo1, Bo3 or Bo5) change from season to season – check the organiser’s official rules for the event you follow.
Series and map handicap calculator →Dota 2 team ratings →CS2 Major math →Margin and no-vig calculator →
Bo1, Bo3 and Bo5 series chances
| Format | Games to win | Series chance at 60% a game |
|---|---|---|
| Bo1 | one | 60.0% |
| Bo3 | two | 64.8% |
| Bo5 | three | 68.3% |
In LoL a map is called a game. Worlds formats – which stages are Bo1, Bo3 or Bo5 – change from season to season. Check the organiser's rules.
How to read a LoL series line
- Take both series pricesNote the price on each team to win the series, for example in a Bo5 market.
- Remove the marginTurn each price into a chance and scale both so they add up to one whole. The margin calculator does this.
- Find the per-game chanceSet the same format as the market (Bo3 or Bo5), then move the slider until the series chance matches the no-vig chance.
- Read the handicapWith that per-game chance, read the −1.5 game handicap and total games in the calculator to see which chances the handicap and total-games prices imply.
Series winner vs −1.5 games
Series winner (Bo5)
- Team A must win three games before Team B.
- Any winning score counts: 3–0, 3–1 or 3–2.
- At 60% a game: 68.3%.
Game handicap −1.5 (Bo5)
- Team A must win by at least two games.
- Only 3–0 or 3–1 count; a 3–2 win loses.
- At 60% a game: 47.5%.
- Lower chance, so the fair price is higher (fair odds = 1 ÷ chance).
Why a knockout run is hard
Each series starts fresh
Winning one series does not carry over. Every new series has its own chance of losing.
Chances multiply
p × p × … (once per series)p is the series chance. Every series is assumed independent, with the same chance. The result drops fast with each extra series.
Same chance is optimistic
The calculator uses one chance for every series. Later rounds can bring stronger opponents, so a real run is often harder.
Longer series favour favourites
A team with a 60% chance per game wins a Bo5 68.3% of the time, a Bo1 only 60.0%. The shorter the series, the less predictable the result.
LoL betting terms
- Game
- One map played to the end. In LoL a map is called a game. More terms: esports betting explained.
- Series
- A set of games: Bo1, Bo3 or Bo5. The first team to win most of the games wins the series.
- Exact score
- The final series score. In a Bo3 at 60% a game, a 2–0 win is 36.0%.
- Total games
- Over 2.5 games in a Bo3 means the series goes to a third game: 48.0% at 60% a game.
Questions
What format does League of Legends Worlds use?
Formats change from season to season, including which stages are Bo1, Bo3 or Bo5. Check the organiser's official rules for the current Worlds. The calculator works with each of these formats.
How do I read LoL Worlds odds?
Remove the margin from both series prices to get no-vig chances, then find the per-game chance that matches them. The margin calculator handles the first step.
What does −1.5 games mean in LoL betting?
Your team must win the series by at least two games. In a Bo5 that means 3–0 or 3–1; in a Bo3 only 2–0 counts.
Is LoL betting legal in Canada?
The answer depends on the laws of your province; this page is not legal advice. See esports betting in Canada for what to check in your province.