Hockey
NHL draft lottery odds and simulator
Check each seed's NHL draft lottery odds, then use the simulator above. Draw the balls once by NHL rules, or run many draws to see which pick each team usually lands.
Pick your team to see its chances. The team with the fewest points holds the most balls.
Draw 1: Team 8 → No. 1
Draw 2: Team 1 → No. 2
Example draw: final order of the first 16 picks
- 1Team 8won draw 1seed 8↑7
- 2Team 1won draw 2seed 1↓1
- 3Team 2seed 2↓1
- 4Team 3seed 3↓1
- 5Team 4seed 4↓1
- 6Team 5seed 5↓1
- 7Team 6seed 6↓1
- 8Team 7seed 7↓1
- 9Team 9seed 9–
- 10Team 10seed 10–
- 11Team 11seed 11–
- 12Team 12seed 12–
- 13Team 13seed 13–
- 14Team 14seed 14–
- 15Team 15seed 15–
- 16Team 16seed 16–
Chance of each pick
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Team 1 | 25.5 | 18.8 | 55.7 | |||||||||||||
| 2 Team 2 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 30.8 | 41.7 | ||||||||||||
| 3 Team 3 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 39.7 | 29.9 | |||||||||||
| 4 Team 4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 44.6 | 20.8 | ||||||||||
| 5 Team 5 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 24.5 | 44.0 | 14.2 | ||||||||||
| 6 Team 6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 34.1 | 41.4 | 9.1 | ||||||||||
| 7 Team 7 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 0.2 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 5.6 | ||||||||||
| 8 Team 8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 54.4 | 30.0 | 3.2 | ||||||||||
| 9 Team 9 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 64.4 | 23.5 | 1.7 | ||||||||||
| 10 Team 10 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 73.3 | 18.4 | 0.9 | ||||||||||
| 11 Team 11 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 79.9 | 13.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||||
| 12 Team 12 | 5.3 | 85.7 | 8.9 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||
| 13 Team 13 | 4.2 | 90.7 | 5.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||
| 14 Team 14 | 3.2 | 94.7 | 2.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||
| 15 Team 15 | 1.1 | 97.9 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||
| 16 Team 16 | 1.1 | 98.9 |
Exact chance in %, from every possible result of the two draws.
Teams, odds and the 2-in-5 rule
Standings: the 16 teams outside the playoff places as of Oct 27, 2026 (NHL standings API), fewest points first. A season is long: this is a what-if.
- 118.5% 185 combos
- 213.5% 135 combos
- 311.5% 115 combos
- 49.5% 95 combos
- 58.5% 85 combos
- 67.5% 75 combos
- 76.5% 65 combos
- 86.0% 60 combos
- 95.0% 50 combos
- 103.5% 35 combos
- 113.0% 30 combos
- 122.5% 25 combos
- 132.0% 20 combos
- 141.5% 15 combos
- 150.5% 5 combos
- 160.5% 5 combos
Tick «2-in-5 limit» for a team that already won two lottery draws in the last five years: it cannot move up by winning.
How the lottery is calculated
First draw: each team wins with its share of the 1,000 ball combinations. Second draw: the first winner’s combinations are drawn again if they come up, so every other team’s chance grows in proportion.
A winner can move up at most 10 places. If it cannot take the pick being drawn, it takes the pick 10 places above its seed and the drawn pick goes to the best seed still waiting. Everyone else keeps the standings order.
The exact table adds up every possible pair of winners (235 cases) with their chances. «Run 10,000 times» draws at random to show the same thing by counting.
NHL draft lottery odds by seed
| Seed (fewest points first) | Chance at first draw | Can get first overall pick? |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.5% | Yes |
| 2 | 13.5% | Yes |
| 3 | 11.5% | Yes |
| 4 | 9.5% | Yes |
| 5 | 8.5% | Yes |
| 6 | 7.5% | Yes |
| 7 | 6.5% | Yes |
| 8 | 6.0% | Yes |
| 9 | 5.0% | Yes |
| 10 | 3.5% | Yes |
| 11 | 3.0% | Yes |
| 12 | 2.5% | No – moves up at most 10 places |
| 13 | 2.0% | No – moves up at most 10 places |
| 14 | 1.5% | No – moves up at most 10 places |
| 15 | 0.5% | No – moves up at most 10 places |
| 16 | 0.5% | No – moves up at most 10 places |
Chances at the first draw, 2022 – present, from the NHL guide. Second-draw odds rise proportionately once the first winner is removed.
How the NHL draft lottery works
- Combinations are split1,000 combinations are shared by seed; the last-place seed holds 185. Extra combination 1001 belongs to no team; if drawn, the draw is repeated.
- First drawThe winning combination decides the first overall pick, within the move-up limit.
- Second drawThe first winner is removed. Other teams' odds rise proportionately. This draw decides the second overall pick.
- Rest in orderTeams not drawn take the remaining picks among the first 16, in inverse order of regular-season points.
Draft lottery numbers to know
Last-place seed's share
185 of 1,000The last-place team holds 18.5% of combinations at the first draw.
Win limit
2 in 5 yearsNo team can move up by winning a lottery draw more than 2 times in any 5-year period.
Picks decided
16The lottery sets the order of the first 16 picks: 2 draws pick the first two, and the rest follow inverse order of regular-season points.
More hockey math
Sources
- media.nhl.com /site/asset/public/ext/2025-26/2026DraftLotteryG… · checked Oct 27, 2026
- nhl.com /news/nhl-announces-changes-to-draft-lottery-for… · checked Oct 27, 2026
Questions
How does the NHL draft lottery work?
2 draws decide the first and second overall picks. The first draw uses 1,000 combinations split by seed; for the second draw, the other teams' odds rise proportionately. Teams not drawn take the rest of the first 16 picks in inverse order of regular-season points.
What are the NHL lottery odds for the last-place team?
The last-place seed holds 185 of the 1,000 combinations, a 18.5% chance at the first draw. Run the simulator above to see how often it lands each pick.
Can every lottery team win the first overall pick?
No. A draw winner can move up at most 10 places, so only the first 11 seeds can get the first overall pick.
When was the 2026 NHL draft lottery?
The NHL scheduled the 2026 Draft Lottery for May 5, 2026. Later dates are not published yet.
Does the NHL draft lottery simulator predict the result?
No. It draws random combinations by the official rules. Over many runs, it shows how often each pick can happen, not what will happen.