Hockey
NHL playoffs: format and series odds
Enter the chance that a team wins one playoff game. The calculator below turns it into the chance to win a best-of-seven series, by series length.
Team A wins about 51 series in 100. With home ice going to Team B instead it would be 49.3% – home ice is worth 1.4 points here. The series goes the full 7 games 31.3% of the time.
Every path of the series
Circle size: how often the series reaches that score. Blue: Team A is more likely to win from there; red: Team B.
Exact series result
| Result | Games | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A 4–0 | in 4 | 6.2% | 16.06 |
| Team A 4–1 | in 5 | 13.0% | 7.66 |
| Team A 4–2 | in 6 | 15.1% | 6.63 |
| Team A 4–3 | in 7 | 16.3% | 6.12 |
| Team B 3–4 | in 7 | 15.0% | 6.69 |
| Team B 2–4 | in 6 | 16.2% | 6.18 |
| Team B 1–4 | in 5 | 11.9% | 8.37 |
| Team B 0–4 | in 4 | 6.2% | 16.06 |
Game by game
Bottom figure: how often that game is played at all.
How it is calculated
Each game is independent: Team A wins at home with the first chance and on the road with the second. Overtime in the playoffs goes on until a goal, so every game has a winner.
We follow every score from 0–0 to 4 wins, game by game, in the 2-2-1-1-1 order: chance of a score = chance of the score before × chance of the next game’s result.
Stanley Cup odds →NHL by the numbers →Odds converter →
Series format: Wikipedia – Stanley Cup playoffs.
Series chance from one game
P(series) = chance to win four games before the opponent wins four, summed over every possible series length
Example: A team that wins 55% of games wins the series 60.8% of the time and sweeps 9.2% of the time.
One game vs a whole series
| Matchup | Chance to win one game | Chance to win the series |
|---|---|---|
| Even teams | Coin flip | 50% |
| Small edge | 55% | 60.8% |
| Clear edge | 60% | 71.0% |
Small edges per game grow over a series. The more games are played, the more often the stronger team comes out ahead.
How to read NHL playoff series odds
- Find the series priceEach team in a series has a price. Turn it into an implied chance – see how to bet on hockey.
- Spot the marginThe two implied chances add up to more than a whole. The extra is the margin – the cost of every bet.
- Pick a one-game chanceDecide how often a team wins a single game against this opponent. This is your own estimate.
- Check the series chanceEnter it in the calculator above. It shows the series chance and the chance for each series length.
- Compare with the priceCompare your series chance with the chance in the price. Your estimate can be wrong, and the margin is always there.
NHL playoff format: four rounds
| Game | Home team | Played |
|---|---|---|
| Game one | Team with home ice | Always |
| Game two | Team with home ice | Always |
| Game three | Opponent | Always |
| Game four | Opponent | Always |
| Game five | Team with home ice | Only if needed |
| Game six | Opponent | Only if needed |
| Game seven | Team with home ice | Only if needed |
The playoffs have four rounds. Each round is a best-of-seven series in a 2-2-1-1-1 home pattern.
More hockey odds
Sources
- Wikipedia – Stanley Cup playoffs · checked Oct 28, 2026
Questions
How does the NHL playoff format work?
There are four rounds of best-of-seven series. Each series uses a 2-2-1-1-1 pattern. The team with home ice hosts games one, two, five and seven. Games five to seven are played only if needed.
How are NHL playoff series odds calculated?
A series price is set by the operator. It can be turned into an implied chance, which includes the margin. To build your own number, estimate a one-game chance; the calculator above turns it into a series chance.
Does a small edge in one game matter over a series?
Yes. A team that wins 55% of single games wins a best-of-seven series 60.8% of the time. A small edge per game grows over the series.
How likely is a sweep in an NHL playoff series?
A team that wins 55% of games wins the series 4-0 only 9.2% of the time. The calculator shows the chance for each series length.
Is NHL playoff betting legal in my province?
The answer depends on the laws of your province. This page is not legal advice. See how to bet on hockey for how betting works in Canada.