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NFL survivor pool planner: the path most likely to survive
Mark the NFL teams you have already used. The planner finds a different team for each remaining week so that your chance to survive every week is as high as possible.
Best path
| Week | Pick | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengalsvs Titans | 82% |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawksvs Cardinals | 85% |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravensvs Chargers | 71% |
| 11 | Buffalo Billsvs Dolphins | 83% |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguarsvs Titans | 85% |
| 13 | Denver Broncosvs Dolphins | 81% |
| 14 | Detroit Lionsvs Titans | 82% |
| 15 | Green Bay Packersvs Dolphins | 74% |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikingsvs Commanders | 81% |
| 17 | San Francisco 49ersvs Eagles | 79% |
| 18 | New England Patriotsvs Dolphins | 79% |
Week 8: each option and the best path after it
| Pick this week | This week | Survive every week | Lost against the best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengalsvs Titans | 82% | 8.8% | |
| Los Angeles Ramsvs Chargers | 77% | 8.2% | −7% |
| Dallas Cowboysvs Cardinals | 69% | 7.3% | −17% |
| Jacksonville Jaguarsvs Colts | 78% | 7.3% | −17% |
| Buffalo Billsvs Ravens | 72% | 7.2% | −18% |
| New England Patriotsat Dolphins | 69% | 7.2% | −18% |
| Pittsburgh Steelersvs Browns | 66% | 7.1% | −20% |
| Seattle Seahawksvs Bears | 66% | 6.4% | −27% |
| Denver Broncosvs Chiefs | 63% | 5.9% | −33% |
| Washington Commandersvs Eagles | 55% | 5.9% | −33% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneersvs Falcons | 55% | 5.9% | −33% |
| New York Jetsvs Raiders | 53% | 5.6% | −36% |
Survival = the product of the weekly chances, as if the games were independent. The planner maximises it exactly (the Hungarian algorithm on the logarithms), so saving a strong club for a later week happens only when it pays. It does not know how your pool-mates pick: in a big pool a less popular pick can be worth a little survival.
Updated 2026-11-01 16:26 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from every game since 1999. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.2%; at a neutral site (London, the Super Bowl) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a rout moves them more than a field goal, and a favourite’s rout less than an underdog’s. Between seasons each rating keeps 50% of its distance from average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (50) and the carry-over (50%) are the best of a grid on the 2000–2022 seasons (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–2025 were kept aside to test them.
Spread and chance. A spread converts to a chance as P(favourite wins) = Φ(spread ÷ 11.7), Φ the normal curve; 11.7 is the value that fits the results of every closing spread of 1999–2022 best. A 3-point favourite wins about 60%, a 7-point favourite about 73%.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. The market line is the consensus closing (or latest) price published by nflverse, shown without its margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, weather or who starts at quarterback.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on 2000–2022; then the ratings forecast every one of the 816 regular-season games of 2023–2025 before kick-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home side” gives the home club its 2000–2022 win rate, 56.4%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 63.8% | 0.636 | 0.223 |
| Market: closing moneyline without the margin | 68.3% | 0.608 | 0.210 |
| Always the home side | 53.9% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
Honest result: the ratings beat a coin and the home side, but the closing market beats the ratings – it knows injuries, weather and starters. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 108 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 60% (market 63%, home side 51%); log-loss 0.664 (market 0.660, coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home side a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–30% (on average 24%) | 41 | 34% |
| 30%–40% (on average 36%) | 79 | 34% |
| 40%–50% (on average 45%) | 163 | 38% |
| 50%–60% (on average 55%) | 183 | 50% |
| 60%–70% (on average 65%) | 171 | 66% |
| 70%–80% (on average 74%) | 130 | 72% |
| 80%–100% (on average 84%) | 49 | 86% |
In-sample, 2000–2022 (5,903 games): ratings 64.2% winners picked, log-loss 0.630; market 66.3%, 0.612.
NFL predictions: win chances for every game →NFL power rankings by the numbers (Elo) →NFL playoff picture: seeds, odds and tiebreakers →
Data: nflverse (schedule, scores, closing lines; licence CC BY), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless every club has its games, the division games match the alignment and the playoff games fit the bracket from the tie-breakers. Rules: NFL tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia: NFL playoffs.
How a survivor pool works
- Choose one teamEach week you choose one NFL team to win its game.
- The team must winIf your team wins, you stay in. If it loses, you are out.
- No team twiceOnce you use a team, you cannot choose it again this season.
- Last one standingPlayers drop out week by week. Your pool's rules decide the winner and how ties are handled.
What the planner shows
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Week | An NFL week still to be played |
| Team | The team the path uses that week |
| Win chance | Elo chance that this team wins its game |
| Still alive | Chance to survive every week up to this one |
The numbers come from live data and update by themselves. If the data is too old, the planner hides them.
This week only vs whole season
Safest team this week
- Takes the highest win chance of the current week
- Feels safe for one week
- Can use up a strong team you may need later
- Later weeks may leave only weak options
Planned path for all weeks
- Gives each remaining week a different team
- May save a strong team for a harder week
- Looks at all weeks together, not one at a time
- This is what the planner above computes
Why the survival chance falls fast
Chance to survive = chance in first week × chance in second week × … × chance in last week
Example: Each week's team can be a clear favourite, and the total still shrinks week after week – it works like a parlay.
What the planner assumes and ignores
One pick a week
The common rule: you choose exactly one team every week.
The team must win
Only a win keeps you alive. A loss ends the run.
No team twice
Teams you mark as used are left out of every later week.
Elo win chances
Ratings from past results, adjusted for margin of victory, with a home edge and a neutral-site Super Bowl. Fitted on older seasons, checked on unseen recent ones.
Does not know injuries
No injuries, quarterback changes, weather or rest. Only game results feed the ratings.
Does not know your pool
How many players are in your pool and which teams they choose are not part of the model.
Changes every week
New results move the ratings, so the path is solved again. Check it before each week's choice.
Questions
What is an NFL survivor pool?
A contest where you choose one NFL team each week. If it wins, you stay in; if it loses, you are out. You cannot use a team twice. Your pool's rules decide who wins.
How does the planner choose a team for each week?
It looks at all remaining weeks together, not one at a time. It solves all remaining weeks together with an exact method and finds the different teams whose win chances multiply to the highest total.
Can the planner's path still lose?
Yes. Every NFL game can go either way, and one loss ends your run. The path is only the route with the highest chance under the model, not a promise or a tip.
Why does the survivor path change every week?
Each new result moves the Elo ratings, and the teams you have used change. The planner solves the path again with the new win chances, so last week's plan may no longer have the highest chance.