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NFL Schedule 2026: Every Game With Win Chances
Pick a week or one team to see every NFL game this week with kickoff in your time zone, final scores and each team's win chance with the fair point spread.
NFL schedule 2026: Week 9
15 games, 0 final.
Thu, Nov 5
8:15 p.m. ET
Jacksonville Jaguars59%Baltimore Ravens home41%Fair spread: Jaguars −2.8.
Sun, Nov 8
9:30 a.m. ET · neutral site
Cincinnati Bengals64%Atlanta Falcons36%Fair spread: Bengals −4.2.
1:00 p.m. ET
Denver Broncos66%Carolina Panthers home34%Fair spread: Broncos −4.9.
1:00 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys49%Indianapolis Colts home51%Fair spread: Colts −0.2.
1:00 p.m. ET
New York Jets22%Kansas City Chiefs home78%Fair spread: Chiefs −9.2.
1:00 p.m. ET
Detroit Lions68%Miami Dolphins home32%Fair spread: Lions −5.5.
1:00 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns49%New Orleans Saints home51%Fair spread: Saints −0.4.
1:00 p.m. ET
New York Giants53%Philadelphia Eagles home47%Fair spread: Giants −0.9.
1:00 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams61%Washington Commanders home39%Fair spread: Rams −3.2.
4:05 p.m. ET
Houston Texans58%Los Angeles Chargers home42%Fair spread: Texans −2.5.
4:05 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Raiders22%San Francisco 49ers home78%Fair spread: 49ers −9.
4:25 p.m. ET
Green Bay Packers35%New England Patriots home65%Fair spread: Patriots −4.7.
4:25 p.m. ET
Arizona Cardinals20%Seattle Seahawks home80%Fair spread: Seahawks −9.8.
8:20 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers28%Chicago Bears home72%Fair spread: Bears −6.7.
Mon, Nov 9
8:15 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills48%Minnesota Vikings home52%Fair spread: Vikings −0.6.
Bye: Steelers, Titans
Playoff games appear here as soon as the matchups are set.
Kick-off times in Eastern time (ET). Chances and fair spreads come from the ratings before kick-off; a fair spread has no bookmaker margin. TV listings are not in our data.
Updated 2026-11-05 06:55 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from every game since 1999. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.1%; at a neutral site (London, the Super Bowl) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 20 × (result − chance) × a margin factor: a rout moves them more than a field goal, and a favourite’s rout less than an underdog’s. Between seasons each rating keeps 50% of its distance from average.
Settings. The step (20), the home edge (50) and the carry-over (50%) are the best of a grid on the 2000–2022 seasons (lowest log-loss of the pre-game chances); 2023–2025 were kept aside to test them.
Spread and chance. A spread converts to a chance as P(favourite wins) = Φ(spread ÷ 11.7), Φ the normal curve; 11.7 is the value that fits the results of every closing spread of 1999–2022 best. A 3-point favourite wins about 60%, a 7-point favourite about 73%.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance: the price with no bookmaker margin. The market line is the consensus closing (or latest) price published by nflverse, shown without its margin. A rating knows only past results – not injuries, weather or who starts at quarterback.
How good is the model
Hold-out test. The settings were fixed on 2000–2022; then the ratings forecast every one of the 816 regular-season games of 2023–2025 before kick-off. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better; “always the home side” gives the home club its 2000–2022 win rate, 56.4%.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 63.8% | 0.636 | 0.223 |
| Market: closing moneyline without the margin | 68.3% | 0.608 | 0.210 |
| Always the home side | 53.9% | 0.691 | 0.249 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 | 0.250 |
Honest result: the ratings beat a coin and the home side, but the closing market beats the ratings – it knows injuries, weather and starters. Use our chances as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet.
This season, for real: over its 121 regular-season games so far the ratings picked the winner in 61% (market 65%, home side 53%); log-loss 0.652 (market 0.649, coin 0.693).
Calibration on the hold-out games: when the ratings gave the home side a chance in a range, how often it won.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–30% (on average 24%) | 41 | 34% |
| 30%–40% (on average 36%) | 79 | 34% |
| 40%–50% (on average 45%) | 163 | 38% |
| 50%–60% (on average 55%) | 183 | 50% |
| 60%–70% (on average 65%) | 171 | 66% |
| 70%–80% (on average 74%) | 130 | 72% |
| 80%–100% (on average 84%) | 49 | 86% |
In-sample, 2000–2022 (5,903 games): ratings 64.2% winners picked, log-loss 0.630; market 66.3%, 0.612.
NFL predictions: win chances for every game →NFL standings: division tables and playoff odds →NFL survivor pool planner: best path to survive →
Data: nflverse (schedule, scores, closing lines; licence CC BY), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless every club has its games, the division games match the alignment and the playoff games fit the bracket from the tie-breakers. Rules: NFL tie-breaking procedures, Wikipedia: NFL playoffs.
How to use the schedule
- Pick a week or teamThe current week opens first. Choose another week, or one team to see only that team's games.
- Check kickoff in your zoneTimes follow your device's time zone. Without JavaScript the page shows Eastern time (ET).
- See score or upcoming gameA finished game shows the final score. An upcoming game shows a win chance for each team.
- Read the win chanceIt comes from Elo team ratings built on past results, adjusted for margin of victory, with a home edge.
- Read the fair spreadThe fair point spread is the margin that matches the win chance, based on how spreads and results related in past games.
Win chance vs fair point spread
Win chance
- Answers one question: who wins the game
- Shown for each of the two teams
- Compare it with a moneyline price
Fair point spread
- Answers a second question: by how much
- A bigger favourite gives more points
- An even game has a spread close to zero
- Compare it with the market line: point spread explained
What each game row shows
| What you see | What it means |
|---|---|
| Time | Kickoff in your time zone |
| Home / Away | Which team plays at its own stadium |
| Final | Game is over; the final score is shown |
| Win chance | Model estimate that each team wins |
| Fair spread | Points the favourite gives at that chance |
| Chance on a finished game | The chance it had before kickoff, kept unchanged |
| Super Bowl | Played as a neutral-site game, no home edge |
| Updated | When the game data was last refreshed |
Game data: nflverse, licence CC BY 4.0, refreshed by itself several times a day. If the data is too old, the tool hides the numbers.
Accuracy on seasons the model did not see
Model's favourite
63.8%Share of games won by the team with the higher chance, on seasons the ratings did not see.
Always the home team
53.9%A simple rule for comparison: pick the home team every time.
Market favourite
68.3%The closing-line favourite in the nflverse data. The betting market did better than the model.
Games checked
816Games of the 2023–2025 seasons. The settings were fitted on older seasons.
Sources
- github.com /nflverse/nflverse-data · checked Nov 1, 2026
- en.wikipedia.org /wiki/National_Football_League · checked Nov 1, 2026
Questions
Where can I see the NFL schedule this week?
In the tool above. It opens on the current week with every game, its kickoff in your time zone and either the final score or each team's win chance.
How many games does each NFL team play?
Each of the 32 teams plays 17 regular-season games. See the division tables on NFL standings.
What time zone are NFL kickoff times shown in?
Your device's time zone: the tool reads it and shows it above the games. Without JavaScript the times are Eastern (ET).
How are NFL win chances calculated?
From Elo ratings: each result moves both teams' ratings, more for a bigger margin of victory. The home team gets an edge, and the Super Bowl counts as a neutral-site game.
When is the NFL schedule updated?
The nflverse game data refreshes by itself several times a day, and the tool shows when it last updated. If the data is too old, the numbers are hidden.