Hockey
NHL Predictions Today: Win Chances for Every Game
Check the NHL schedule today: every game with each team's win chance and the fair moneyline that chance means. After the game, the final score sits next to the chance each team had.
2026-27 regular season: 250 of 1,344 games played.
Thu, Nov 5: 11 games
7:00 p.m. ET
Utah Mammoth44%fair 2.29 / +129Montréal Canadiens home56%fair 1.77 / −129Puck line: Canadiens −1.5 36% (fair 2.82 / +182); Mammoth +1.5 64% (fair 1.55 / −182).
7:00 p.m. ET
Vegas Golden Knights51%fair 1.96 / −104Detroit Red Wings home49%fair 2.04 / +104Puck line: Golden Knights −1.5 30% (fair 3.30 / +230); Red Wings +1.5 70% (fair 1.44 / −230).
7:00 p.m. ET
Chicago Blackhawks31%fair 3.19 / +219Tampa Bay Lightning home69%fair 1.46 / −219Puck line: Lightning −1.5 48% (fair 2.06 / +106); Blackhawks +1.5 52% (fair 1.94 / −106).
7:00 p.m. ET
St. Louis Blues44%fair 2.27 / +127New Jersey Devils home56%fair 1.79 / −127Puck line: Devils −1.5 35% (fair 2.85 / +185); Blues +1.5 65% (fair 1.54 / −185).
7:00 p.m. ET
Carolina Hurricanes57%fair 1.76 / −131New York Islanders home43%fair 2.31 / +131Puck line: Hurricanes −1.5 36% (fair 2.79 / +179); Islanders +1.5 64% (fair 1.56 / −179).
7:00 p.m. ET
Philadelphia Flyers43%fair 2.34 / +134New York Rangers home57%fair 1.75 / −134Puck line: Rangers −1.5 36% (fair 2.76 / +176); Flyers +1.5 64% (fair 1.57 / −176).
7:00 p.m. ET
Boston Bruins51%fair 1.95 / −105Pittsburgh Penguins home49%fair 2.05 / +105Puck line: Bruins −1.5 31% (fair 3.26 / +226); Penguins +1.5 69% (fair 1.44 / −226).
7:00 p.m. ET
Dallas Stars50%fair 1.99 / −101Columbus Blue Jackets home50%fair 2.01 / +101Puck line: Stars −1.5 30% (fair 3.36 / +236); Blue Jackets +1.5 70% (fair 1.42 / −236).
7:00 p.m. ET
Vancouver Canucks39%fair 2.57 / +157Winnipeg Jets home61%fair 1.64 / −157Puck line: Jets −1.5 40% (fair 2.48 / +148); Canucks +1.5 60% (fair 1.68 / −148).
8:00 p.m. ET
Anaheim Ducks39%fair 2.56 / +156Edmonton Oilers home61%fair 1.64 / −156Puck line: Oilers −1.5 40% (fair 2.49 / +149); Ducks +1.5 60% (fair 1.67 / −149).
9:30 p.m. ET
Nashville Predators38%fair 2.64 / +164Colorado Avalanche home62%fair 1.61 / −164Puck line: Avalanche −1.5 41% (fair 2.42 / +142); Predators +1.5 59% (fair 1.70 / −142).
Times are Eastern (ET); with JavaScript on, they switch to your time zone. Chances before puck drop from the ratings; a finished game keeps the chance it had. Fair odds = 1 ÷ chance, without a bookmaker margin.
This season so far
Every finished regular-season game, each with the chance the ratings gave it before puck drop (250 games). Lower log-loss is better.
| Forecast | Winner picked | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 61.6% | 0.668 |
| Home team, at last season’s home win rate (52.2%) | 56.4% | 0.689 |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 50.0% | 0.693 |
Updated 2026-11-05 09:03 UTC
How it is calculated
Ratings. Every team has an Elo rating built from every game of the last three seasons and this one. Before a game the home team’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − away rating + 30) ÷ 400): home ice is worth 30 rating points, so between equal teams the home side wins 54.3%. After the game both ratings move by 5 × (result − chance), more after a win by several goals. A finished game keeps the chance it had before puck drop.
Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance, shown as decimal and American odds: the price with no bookmaker margin. A sportsbook pays less than this on both sides.
Puck line. The ratings give one number, the chance to win. A Poisson model of goals needs two, so we keep the expected goals of both teams together at the league’s 60-minute rate of 2024–25 and 2025–26 (5.81 a game) and split them so that the model’s chance to win equals the ratings’ chance. From that score distribution comes the chance of winning by two goals or more (−1.5), with the same empty-net adjustment as our puck-line calculator: a team down by one late pulls its goalie, the leader then scores 22% of the time and the trailer ties it 19%. Overtime and shootouts are a coin flip.
Check on 2,624 games of the same seasons: the model gave the favourite’s −1.5 36.2% on average; it covered in 34.6%. So the model is a little generous to the favourite’s −1.5.
| Favourite −1.5, model | Games | Covered |
|---|---|---|
| 25%–30% (on average 29.7%) | 131 | 25.2% |
| 30%–35% (on average 32.4%) | 1,172 | 30.1% |
| 35%–40% (on average 37.2%) | 765 | 36.0% |
| 40%–100% (on average 44.3%) | 556 | 44.2% |
No total from the ratings. A rating says who is stronger, not how many goals a game will have, so we do not print an over/under chance for each game. To price a total from a sportsbook line, use the puck-line and totals calculators.
How good is it? On 2024–25 and 2025–26 (2,624 games) the ratings picked the winner in 56.3% of games (log-loss 0.678; coin 0.693). Hold-out test: settings fitted on 2024–25 alone scored 0.696 on 2025–26 against 0.693 for a coin flip. No better than a coin: single NHL games are close to a coin flip, so treat every chance here as rough.
A rating knows only past results – not injuries, rest or who starts in goal. These are model chances, not tips: no model wins over time against a sportsbook’s margin.
NHL standings and playoff odds →Puck line calculator →NHL betting lines explained →NHL playoff bracket and series odds →
Data: NHL public API (schedule, start times, every game result and the standings), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless the standings match the game results team by team.
How to read a game row
- Start time in your zoneEach start time is shown in your own time zone. Pick another day to see its games.
- Home and away teamEach row lists the home team and the away team. The home team gets a small edge in the ratings.
- Win chanceThe chance each team wins the game, overtime and shootout included, from Elo ratings built on past NHL results.
- Fair moneylineThe price that matches the chance, in American and decimal odds, with no margin. See how a moneyline works.
- Final score after the gameFinished games show the score, with OT or SO marked, next to the chance each team had before puck drop. The chance is not changed.
How the win chance is built
Elo ratings from results
Each team has a rating built from past NHL game results. It moves after every game. The same ratings feed the standings page.
Home edge
54.3%The home team's chance when two equal teams meet.
Overtime and shootout count
24.8%Share of games last season that went past regulation. The chance covers the final result. For regulation only, see the 60-minute line.
Fair moneyline from a win chance
Fair decimal odds = 1 ÷ win chance. Then convert decimal to American odds.
Example: An even game: 50.0% chance = 2.00 decimal = +100 American. Other prices: odds converter.
Fair moneyline vs sportsbook moneyline
Fair moneyline (this page)
- Comes straight from the win chance
- No margin: the two chances add up to exactly the whole
- An even game shows +100 on both sides
Sportsbook moneyline
- Set by the sportsbook, margin included
- For example, −110 on both sides: 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%
- The part above the whole is the margin you pay
- Measure it with the margin calculator
How often the ratings are right
| Method | Games won | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Team the ratings favoured | 56.3% | Better than a coin flip by a few points |
| Always the home team | 54.2% | Home ice alone gives a small edge |
| Coin flip | Half | A pure guess with no information |
Seasons 2024–25 to 2025–26 replayed game by game, 2,624 games. The tool also shows this season. No comparison with betting markets.
What the win chance does not know
Starting goalie
The ratings do not know who starts in goal. A backup goalie can change a game in a way the chance does not see.
Injuries
Missing players are not an input. The rating only moves after results come in.
Back-to-back games
Travel and a game the night before are not counted. The ratings do not know if a team played the night before.
Line changes
New lines, trades and call-ups are not inputs. The rating catches up only through later results.
Questions
What time are NHL games today in my time zone?
The table above shows each start time in your own time zone. Pick another day to see that day's games.
How are these NHL predictions made?
From Elo team ratings built on past NHL results, with a home edge. Ratings move after every game. Goalies, injuries and lineups are not inputs.
How accurate are NHL predictions from these ratings?
In 2024–25 to 2025–26 replayed, the favoured team won 56.3% of 2,624 games; always choosing the home team won 54.2%. A single game is often called wrong.
Are these NHL odds today from a sportsbook?
No. They are fair odds from the win chance, with no margin. A sportsbook's price for the same game includes its margin, so it pays less. Compare with NHL betting lines.
Does the win chance include overtime and the shootout?
Yes. It is the chance to win the game on the final result, like a moneyline. For regulation only, see the 60-minute line.