Hockey
The last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, in numbers
The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, in 1993. Use the calculator to see the chance a Canadian team wins this year or over several years.
Each team’s chance to win the Cup in one season, in %. A futures price can be turned into a chance on the odds converter.
Every one of the 32 teams gets the same chance each season, so Canada’s 7 teams together have 21.9% a season. On average the wait would be 4.6 seasons; half the time it would end within 3.
at least one Canadian Cup50% line
The real drought
No Canada-based team has won since 1993 (Montreal Canadiens): 32 Stanley Cup seasons through 2026 (no Cup was awarded in 2005).
Under equal chances, a run that long happens 0.037% of the time (1 in 2,696).
How it is calculated
Only one team wins each season, so Canada’s chance in a season is the sum of its teams’ chances: q.
Chance of no Canadian Cup in N seasons = (1 − q)N; at least one = 1 − (1 − q)N. Seasons are treated as independent and alike – a simplification: real teams get better and worse.
Equal chances: q = 7 ÷ 32. This is an assumption to compare against, not a forecast.
The drought at a glance
Last Canadian winner
1993The Montreal Canadiens won the Stanley Cup in 1993, according to the NHL champions list.
Cups awarded since then
32All went to US-based teams. Latest: Carolina Hurricanes, 2026.
Canadian NHL clubs
7 of 32Canada has 7 of the 32 NHL teams.
No Cup awarded
2005The NHL list shows no champion in 2005, so that season is not counted.
Chance the drought continues
No Canadian winner in N seasons = (1 − p)^N; p = chance a Canadian team wins one season
Example: Equal chances: p = 7 ÷ 32 = 21.9%. No Canadian winner in ten seasons: 8.5%.
Equal chances: the drought in numbers
| Span | What is measured | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| One team, one season | That team wins the Cup | 3.1% |
| All Canadian teams, one season | A Canadian team wins the Cup | 21.9% |
| Ten seasons | No Canadian team wins | 8.5% |
| 32 Cups in a row | No Canadian team wins | 0.04% |
Equal chances is a simplification: real teams differ in strength every season, so treat these numbers as a rough check.
How to use the calculator
- Set the number of teamsKeep 7 Canadian teams or change the number.
- Choose equal chances or pricesEqual gives each team 3.1%. Or enter each team's futures price – see Stanley Cup odds.
- Set the number of yearsChoose N to see the chance over several seasons.
- Read the resultsYou get the chance a Canadian team wins this year and over N years.
Sources
- nhl.com /news/nhl-stanley-cup-champions-winners-complete… · checked Oct 27, 2026
- nhl.com /news/which-canadian-team-can-win-stanley-cup-in… · checked Oct 27, 2026
Questions
When did a Canadian team last win the Stanley Cup?
In 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens won it. Since then 32 Cups have been awarded, all to US-based teams.
Who won the most recent Stanley Cup?
The Carolina Hurricanes won in 2026, according to the NHL champions list.
What are the odds of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup?
With equal chances for all 32 clubs, about 21.9% a season. Futures prices give a different number each year; enter them in the calculator. See Stanley Cup odds.
How unlikely is the drought if every team had an equal chance?
No Canadian winner across 32 Cups would happen about 0.04% of the time. Teams are not equal, so this is only a rough check.