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CFL standings and playoff odds
See where each CFL team stands in the East and West Divisions and its chance to make the playoffs, finish first, cross over or win the Grey Cup.
Chance to win the Grey Cup
| # | Team | GP | W–L | PTS | PF | PA | Diff | Home | Away | Div | Last 5 | Playoffs | Grey Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Division | |||||||||||||
| 1 | Montreal AlouettesyFirst place: a bye to the East Final, at home. Wins the Grey Cup: 44%. | 18 | 14–4 | 28 | 624 | 476 | +148 | 9–0 | 5–4 | 8–0 | WWWLW | Bye | 44% |
| 2 | Toronto ArgonautsxHosts the Blue Bombers in the East Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 4.4%. | 18 | 9–9 | 18 | 517 | 528 | −11 | 4–2 | 5–7 | 4–4 | WWLLL | In | 4.4% |
| 3 | Hamilton Tiger-CatsOut of the playoffs. | 18 | 6–12 | 12 | 443 | 523 | −80 | 4–6 | 2–6 | 3–5 | LLWLW | Out | 0% |
| 4 | Ottawa RedblacksOut of the playoffs. | 18 | 1–17 | 2 | 437 | 673 | −236 | 1–8 | 0–9 | 1–7 | LLLWL | Out | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W–L | PTS | PF | PA | Diff | Home | Away | Div | Last 5 | Playoffs | Grey Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Division | |||||||||||||
| 1 | Edmonton ElksyFirst place: a bye to the West Final, at home. Wins the Grey Cup: 34%. | 18 | 13–5 | 26 | 541 | 437 | +104 | 8–1 | 5–4 | 7–3 | LWWWL | Bye | 34% |
| 2 | BC LionsxHosts the Roughriders in the West Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 7.1%. | 18 | 10–8 | 20 | 516 | 484 | +32 | 6–3 | 4–5 | 5–5 | WWWLL | In | 7.1% |
| 3 | Saskatchewan RoughridersxPlays at the Lions in the West Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 4.3%. | 18 | 10–8 | 20 | 486 | 473 | +13 | 7–3 | 3–5 | 5–5 | LLLWW | In | 4.3% |
| 4 | Winnipeg Blue BomberscCrossover team. Plays at the Argonauts in the East Semi-Final. Wins the Grey Cup: 5.8%. | 18 | 9–9 | 18 | 477 | 492 | −15 | 5–5 | 4–4 | 4–6 | LLWLW | Crossover | 5.8% |
| 5 | Calgary StampedersOut of the playoffs. | 18 | 9–9 | 18 | 632 | 587 | +45 | 4–5 | 5–4 | 4–6 | WWWLW | Out | 0% |
The regular season is over: places are final. Grey Cup chances: every playoff result, each game from our ratings. Marks x, y, c are the CFL’s own. The line under third place is the playoff cut; a fourth-place team with more points than the other division’s third crosses over.
From 2027 the CFL plays a new playoff format: eight teams, Division Showdowns and Play-In Games, then reseeding each round.
Updated 2026-10-29 17:04 UTC
How the chances are calculated
Ratings. Every club has an Elo rating built from game results since 2018. Before a game the home side’s chance is 1 ÷ (1 + 10−(home rating − visitor rating + 50) ÷ 400): playing at home is worth 50 rating points, so between equal clubs the home side wins 57.1% of games; at a neutral site (the Grey Cup) nobody gets it. After each game both ratings move by 40 × (result − chance), more after a rout and less after a field-goal game. Between seasons each rating keeps 30% of its distance from average (rosters change).
Rules. Two points for a win, one for a tie. Through 2026 the first three of each division make the playoffs; first place gets a bye to the Division Final at home; second hosts third in the Division Semi-Final, unless the other division’s fourth-place team has more points than this third-place team – then it crosses over and takes that spot. Ties on points: most wins, then the games between the tied clubs (win share, then point difference, then points ratio), then division games, then all games, then a coin toss. All single games; playoff games cannot end tied.
Simulation. During the regular season we play every remaining game 10,000 times with the ratings (they keep moving inside each simulated season), apply the rules above and play out the playoffs. Once the field is set, the playoff chances are exact: every combination of results is counted, each game from the ratings.
Simplified. Scores of games not yet played are not simulated, so the point-difference tie-breakers use the games played so far; a tie of three or more clubs that partly splits is not started again from the first step. From 2027 the CFL reseeds after every round; the FAQ does not say who meets whom, so we pair the highest remaining seed with the lowest.
How good is the model
We replayed the 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 regular seasons: before each of the 405 games the ratings gave the home side a chance, then learned from the result. Lower log-loss and Brier scores are better.
| Forecast | Log-loss | Brier | Winner picked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our ratings (Elo) | 0.626 | 0.217 | 66.9% |
| Home side at last season’s home win rate | 0.698 | 0.251 | 53.8% |
| Coin flip (50/50) | 0.693 | 0.249 | 50.0% |
Hold-out test: with settings fitted on 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024 only, the 2025 forecasts scored 0.695 against 0.693 for a coin flip – no better. Single CFL games are close to a coin flip more often than the ratings suggest; treat the chances as rough.
This season, for real: the settings were fixed before 2026; over its 81 regular-season games so far the forecasts scored a log-loss of 0.620 (coin flip 0.693) and the favourite won 59%.
| We gave the home side | Games | Home side won |
|---|---|---|
| 0%–35% (on average 28%) | 54 | 27% |
| 35%–45% (on average 40%) | 52 | 37% |
| 45%–55% (on average 50%) | 82 | 49% |
| 55%–65% (on average 60%) | 87 | 65% |
| 65%–75% (on average 70%) | 70 | 66% |
| 75%–100% (on average 81%) | 60 | 78% |
CFL playoffs bracket and Grey Cup chances →CFL schedule and scores with win chances →Grey Cup →
Data: cfl.ca (schedule, scores, playoff games) and stats.cfl.ca (standings), checked every 6 hours; nothing is published unless the standings match the game results club by club and the playoff games fit the CFL rules. Rules: Wikipedia: Canadian Football League (points, tie-breakers, byes, crossover), CFL playoff format FAQ (format from 2027), CFL rule book 2026 (no ties).
What the standings columns mean
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Games played | Regular-season games finished |
| Wins | Games won, overtime included |
| Losses | Games lost, overtime included |
| Ties | None under the 2026 rule book |
| Standings points | 2 per win, none for a loss |
| Points for | Points the team scored |
| Points against | Points the team allowed |
| Make playoffs | Share of simulated seasons reaching the playoffs |
| Finish first | Share of runs with first place and a bye |
| Cross over | Share of runs taking the other division's spot |
| Win Grey Cup | Share of runs ending with a Grey Cup win |
How the CFL playoff picture is set
Playoff teams per division
3 per divisionThe first 3 teams in each division make the playoffs, unless the crossover rule applies.
First place gets a bye
1 bye per divisionFirst place skips the Division Semi-Final and hosts the Division Final.
Second hosts third
Second place hosts third place or the crossover team.
Crossover rule
A fourth-place team takes the other division's third-place spot if it has more points. Equal is not enough.
Division Finals and Grey Cup
Semi-Final winners play at first place. The two division champions meet in the Grey Cup.
Through 2026 vs from 2027
Through 2026
- First 3 of each division make the playoffs
- First place gets a bye
- Crossover for a fourth-place team with more points
From 2027
- First 2 of each division play Division Showdowns
- Next 4 best teams, any division, play Play-In Games
- Teams are reseeded after each round
CFL tie-breakers in order
| Step | Teams level on points are separated by |
|---|---|
| Step 1 | More wins in all games |
| Step 2 | Winning percentage in games between the tied teams |
| Step 3 | Net points (scored minus allowed) in those games |
| Step 4 | Points quotient (scored ÷ allowed) in those games |
| Step 5 | Winning percentage against the division |
| Step 6 | Net points against the division |
| Step 7 | Points quotient against the division |
| Step 8 | Net points in all games |
| Step 9 | Points quotient in all games |
| Step 10 | Coin toss |
If two teams stay tied after others drop out, start again from the first step.
How the playoff chances are calculated
- Read the game resultsFinal scores come from the CFL's public stats data.
- Build team ratingsRatings come from game results, with a home edge.
- Play the rest many timesEach remaining game is simulated many times. Single games: CFL schedule and scores.
- Apply the CFL rulesPoints, tie-breakers and crossover pick the playoff teams.
- Count the share of runsA chance is the share of runs with that outcome.
Sources
- static.cfl.ca /wp-content/uploads/2026_Rule-Book.pdf · checked Oct 29, 2026
- CFL.ca – FAQ: new regular season and revamped playoff format · checked Oct 29, 2026
- Wikipedia – Canadian Football League · checked Oct 29, 2026
Questions
How many teams make the CFL playoffs from each division?
Through 2026, the first 3 teams in each division. A fourth-place team can take the other division's third-place spot through the crossover rule.
How does the CFL crossover rule work?
If a fourth-place team finishes with more points than the third-place team in the other division, it takes that spot. Equal points are not enough.
How many points is a win worth in the CFL standings?
A win is worth 2 points and a loss none. Under the 2026 rule book a game cannot end in a tie.
Who gets a bye in the CFL playoffs?
First place in each division. It skips the Division Semi-Final and hosts the Division Final. See the bracket on CFL playoffs.
What changes in the CFL playoff format from 2027?
The first 2 of each division play Division Showdowns, the next 4 best teams from any division play Play-In Games, and teams are reseeded after each round.