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Anytime touchdown scorer odds: what they mean
Type an anytime touchdown scorer price to see the chance it implies and what a stake pays. Enter two players to see the chance that both score or at least one scores.
- Expected touchdowns
- 0.47
- 2 or more touchdowns
- 8.1% fair 12.31
- 3 or more touchdowns
- 1.2% fair 81.86
A $10.00 bet at 2.50 returns $25.00 if the player scores ($15.00 profit) and nothing if not.
- Expected touchdowns
- 0.37
- 2 or more touchdowns
- 5.5% fair 18.22
- 3 or more touchdowns
- 0.7% fair 150.66
A $10.00 bet at 3.20 returns $32.00 if the player scores ($22.00 profit) and nothing if not.
Both players
| Outcome | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Both score | 12% | 8.53 |
| At least one scores | 57% | 1.75 |
| Exactly one scores | 45% | 2.21 |
| Neither scores | 43% | 2.33 |
At 8.00 the price implies 12.5%; with independent players the fair chance is 11.7%. Expected return per $1: −0.06. The price is worse than fair: that gap is the book’s cut on this combination.
Independent players is an assumption. A quarterback and his receiver tend to score together; two running backs of one team share the carries near the goal line. Books know this and price same-game parlays accordingly.
Poisson model: touchdowns in a game are counted as rare independent events, so P(at least one) = 1 − e−λ, where λ is the expected number. Overtime counts for the bet only as the book’s rules say.
How the numbers are calculated
Price to chance. A decimal price d implies 1 ÷ d (American +150 is 2.50, −200 is 1.50). That chance still holds the book’s margin. With both sides of a Yes/No market, the fair chance is Yes ÷ (Yes + No) and the margin is Yes + No − 1.
Poisson. If a player scores at a steady rate, the number of touchdowns follows a Poisson law with mean λ. From P(anytime) = 1 − e−λ we get λ = −ln(1 − P), then P(2 or more) = 1 − e−λ(1 + λ) and P(3 or more) adds λ² ÷ 2.
Two players. Independent: both = PA × PB; at least one = 1 − (1 − PA)(1 − PB). Expected return of a price d with true chance p is p × d − 1 per dollar staked.
NFL predictions: win chances for every game →Parlay calculator →Margin and no-vig calculator →
From price to chance
Implied chance = 1 ÷ decimal price
Example: For example, +150 is 2.50 in decimal: 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.0%. Convert other formats with the odds converter.
Anytime TD odds as chance and payout
| American price | Decimal | Implied chance | $10.00 pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| −200 | 1.50 | 66.7% | $15.00 |
| −110 | 1.91 | 52.4% | $19.09 |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.0% | $25.00 |
The payout includes the stake. Profit at +150 is $15.00. These are example prices, not the prices of any book.
Both score vs at least one scores
Both players score
- Wins only if both players score.
- Chance = chance A × chance B.
- With a fair chance of 50.0% each: 25.0%.
- Lower chance, so a longer fair price.
At least one scores
- Wins if one or both players score.
- Chance = 1 − (1 − A) × (1 − B).
- Higher chance than either player alone.
- Shorter fair price than either single player.
What an anytime TD price includes
The margin
Each price pays less than the fair price. When a market shows only a yes price, there is no other side to compare, so the margin is hard to see.
Same game, linked players
Two players in one game are not fully independent. The calculator treats them as independent, so the combined chance is an approximation.
Player ruled out
If the player does not play, the bet may be void or may stand. Check the bet rules before you bet.
What counts as a touchdown
Which touchdowns count for the bet is set in the bet rules. Check them – this page does not decide it.
Same math in hockey
An NHL goal scorer price works the same way: one price, one implied chance, plus the margin.
Questions
What does an anytime touchdown scorer bet mean?
It is a bet that a chosen player scores a touchdown at some point in the game. Which touchdowns count and what happens if the player does not play are set in the bet rules – check them.
How do I read anytime TD odds as a chance?
Turn the price into decimal and divide 1 by it. For example, +150 is 2.50, so the implied chance is 40.0%. That chance still includes the margin.
How do you work out the chance that two players both score?
Multiply the two chances. The calculator above does this and also shows the chance that at least one scores. Players in the same game are linked, so treat the result as an approximation.
Why do anytime touchdown scorer odds pay less than the fair price?
Each price includes the book's margin. With only a yes price, the margin is hard to see. The calculator above shows the market margin of the prices you enter.
Do anytime TD odds tell me who will score?
No. A price shows the chance the book implies, plus its margin. For game-level win chances, see NFL predictions. No price or prediction tells you the result.